基于权衡协同效应的安徽省生态功能区识别及情景模拟

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Abstract The practical needs of specific regions in coordinating various ecosystem services could be effectively addressed through ecological zoning, guided by the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of these services, as well as their trade-offs/synergies. Sustainable development in the study area was promoted by formulating corresponding management strategies according to the specific ecological attributes of different ecosystem services. The identification of ecological functional zones based on the trade-offs/synergies of ecosystem services offers a precise and differentiated regulatory framework for ecological function restoration and management. Taking Anhui Province as an example, the InVEST model was employed to assess and analyze the spatial-temporal evolution and trade-offs/synergies of typical ecosystem services in the region from 2000 to 2020. Ecosystem service clusters were extracted through the SOM (Self-Organizing Map) model to define ecological functional zones. The PLUS model was then applied to simulate the evolution trend of integrated ecosystem services by 2050, leading to the proposal of regulatory strategies. Key findings include: ① From 2000 to 2020, water production services and soil conservation in Anhui Province showed continuous improvement, whereas carbon sequestration services, habitat quality, and food supply experienced a decline. The comprehensive ecosystem service index revealed a spatial pattern of "high in the south and low in the north". Approximately 50% of the study area was capable of providing two types of ecosystem services, while only about 11% of the area supported all ecological services. Areas unable to provide ecosystem services increased from 0.07% in 2000 to 4.85% in 2020. ② Strong synergistic effects were observed among water production, carbon sequestration, habitat quality, and soil conservation sevices. Conversely, a distinct trade-off was evident between the water production and food production services. ③ Based on this findings, four clusters of ecosystem services were identified: the food supply cluster, ecological conservation cluster, human living environment cluster, and forest protection cluster. Consequently, Anhui Province was divided into agricultural ecological zones, ecological conservation zones, urban development zones, and forest ecological protection zones, each with tailored regulatory strategies.④Multi-scenario simulation analyses revealed that under the ecological protection scenario, habitat quality and carbon sequestration services were optimized. Food production reached its peak under the arable land protection scenario. The ecological protection scenario showed significant improvements in overall ecosystem services. The research outcomes offer a scientific basis for promoting sustainable development and optimizing ecological environment in Anhui Province.

Key words： ecosystem services trade-off/synergy effect ecological functional zoning multi-scenario modeling Anhui province

Received: 03 June 2024

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	HUANG Mu-yi
	TANG Yu-ru
	GUO Qin
	WU Xue

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HUANG Mu-yi,TANG Yu-ru,GUO Qin等. Identification of ecological functional areas and multi-scenario simulation study in Anhui province based on trade-off/synergy effect[J]. CHINA ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCECE, 2025, 45(1): 450-464.

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http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/EN/ OR http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/EN/Y2025/V45/I1/450

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