“双碳”背景下中国交通运输业碳排放驱动因素及脱钩效应

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Abstract Based on the LMDI decomposition model, the contribution of driving factors of transportation carbon emissions is quantified. The Tapio decoupling model is used to analyze the relationship between carbon emissions and economic growth, and the efforts made by each factor to achieve decoupling are quantitatively analyzed. The results show that: Economic output is the decisive factors leading to an increase on transportation carbon emissions, with a contribution rate of 115.93% to carbon emissions; Industrial structure has the most significant inhibiting effect on carbon emissions. The decoupling index of transportation carbon emissions in the national, eastern, central, and western regions is all in a downward trend, experiencing the decoupling trend of expansive negative decoupling → weak decoupling → strong decoupling. The driving factors of transportation carbon emissions in the four regions generally show the phased characteristic of "no decoupling effort → weak decoupling effort → strong decoupling effort". Industrial structure has made varying degrees of decoupling effort in 30provinces, with transportation intensity and population size becoming key factors hindering carbon decoupling in the vast majority of provinces.

Key words： transportation industry carbon emissions driving factors Tapio model decoupling effort

Received: 03 June 2024

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	SHAO Zhi-guo
	LI Ke-xin
	LI Meng-di

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SHAO Zhi-guo,LI Ke-xin,LI Meng-di. Driving factors and decoupling effect of carbon emissions in China's transportation industry under the background of "dual carbon"[J]. CHINA ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCECE, 2025, 45(1): 571-582.

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http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/EN/ OR http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/EN/Y2025/V45/I1/571

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