中国跨区域能源系统优化及碳中和情景分析

赵庆; 许光清

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中国环境科学 ›› 2025, Vol. 45 ›› Issue (1) : 557-570.

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中国跨区域能源系统优化及碳中和情景分析

赵庆, 许光清

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Cross-regional energy system optimization and carbon neutrality scenario analysis in China

ZHAO Qing, XU Guang-qing

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摘要

通过构建跨区域能源系统优化模型NEMO-China-MR,基于各区域经济发展和能源需求差异性以及区域资源禀赋和新能源发展异质性,设计了稳妥推进“双碳”目标的参考情景S0,供需协同的综合情景S1和区域均衡发展情景S2,不同情景均能在达成“双碳”目标的同时实现能源需求转型与新型电力系统构建.情景对比的结果表明:供需协同影响电力系统最优发展路径,储能设施和跨区域输电克服了能源资源的时空错配,S1情景需要考虑未来电网的不确定性,S2情景在区域均衡发展促进经济健康发展的同时减少了电网传输的压力,是未来最理想的发展情景.未来需要以经济高质量发展引领能源系统转型,以电气化与电力低碳化协同构建新型电力系统,推进区域均衡发展的同时构建跨区域传输通道.

Abstract

An inter-regional energy system optimization model, NEMO-China-MR, was constructed in this paper. Based on the economic development and energy demand differences across regions, as well as the regional resource endowments and heterogeneity in new energy development, three scenarios were designed: the reference scenario S0for steadily advancing the "carbon peaking and carbon neutrality" targets, the comprehensive scenario S1 for supply-demand coordination, and the balanced regional development scenario S2. Each scenario achieved both the "carbon peaking and carbon neutrality" targets and the transformation of energy demand while building a new power system. The scenario comparison results indicated that supply-demand coordination influenced the optimal development path of the power system. Energy storage facilities and inter-regional transmission overcame the spatial and temporal mismatches of energy resources. Scenario S1 required consideration of future grid uncertainties, while Scenario S2, which promoted healthy economic growth through balanced regional development, reduced grid transmission pressure and was identified as the most ideal development scenario for the future. Moving forward, it is essential to lead the energy system transition through high-quality economic development, construct a new power system through the coordination of electrification and low-carbon power, and build inter-regional transmission channels while promoting balanced regional development.

导出引用

赵庆, 许光清. 中国跨区域能源系统优化及碳中和情景分析[J]. 中国环境科学. 2025, 45(1): 557-570

ZHAO Qing, XU Guang-qing. Cross-regional energy system optimization and carbon neutrality scenario analysis in China[J]. China Environmental Science. 2025, 45(1): 557-570

中图分类号： X24 F407

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