Abstract:A concept of virtual ecological footprint and amendment were presented to overcome the limitation in traditional ecological footprint calculation framework. In order to accommodate the long range, variation and uncertainty in regional planning, the planning environmental impact assessment of the special planning area for Boao Forum for Asia was used as examgle, an SD model for regional ecological footprint under the restriction of bio-capacity was built based on the system dynamic method. Restriction of bio-capacity was expressed by bio-capacity occupation coefficient, k. Regional sustainable development strategies were brought forward according to the scenario simulation results. The study demonstrated that the investigated area developed under low intensiveness and had abundant resources by far. In 2004, the planning area had 0.44gha ecological reserve per capita. Remarkable ecological deficit would appear after the planning implemented due to the decrease of productive land and the increase of population and consumption. It was predicted that ecological deficit per capita would rise to 0.49gha and 2.36gha in 2010 and 2020, respectively. To reduce adverse impact on environment, measures should be taken to enhance land productivity, to establish virtual ecological footprint strategy and to reduce the regional development scale. Resource exporters should be compensated as well.
韦静, 曾维华. 生态承载力约束下的区域可持续发展的动态模拟
——以博鳌特别规划区为例
[J]. 中国环境科学, 2009, 29(3): 330-336.
WEI Jing, ZENG Wei-Hua. Dynamic simulation of regional sustainable development under the restriction of eco-capacity—a case study in Boao Planning Area. . CHINA ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCECE, 2009, 29(3): 330-336.