Abstract：With Fushan industrial park in Zhuhai City as a case study, jointed with the established Environmental Carrying Capacity (ECC) index system, the dynamic evaluation model of industrial park with catastrophe progression method was built to simulate the variation of ECC under three kinds of industrial plan scenarios. In this model, the indicators of ECC can be grouped into natural ECC and artificial ECC. The results indicated that the natural ECC would be descending after middle period of planning, while the artificial ECC would ascend during whole process of planning, especially in the beginning period of planning. As a whole, the ECC would ascend in the pre-middle period, and descend in the finial period, and the status of comprehensive ECC would maintain at a stable level.
徐琳瑜, 康鹏, 刘仁志. 基于突变理论的工业园区环境承载力动态评价方法[J]. 中国环境科学, 2013, 33(6): 1127-1136.
XU Lin-Yu, KANG Peng, LIU Ren-Zhi. Dynamic evaluation on environmental carrying capacity of industrial park with catastrophe progression method. . CHINA ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCECE, 2013, 33(6): 1127-1136.
