Abstract：Effect of vehicular emission control measures in future years (2011~2020) was assessed based on the scenario analysis in Beijing. The conventional pollutants emissions of motor vehicle in three kinds of control measures scenarios in future years have been estimated, which compared with the Business-as-usual (BAU)scenario to calculate the emission reduction. The results indicated that although the Beijing motor vehicle population would have a certain growth, emission control measures would get significant effect. The elimination of high-emission vehicles achieved the largest reduction in all of single measures. The light-duty vehicle elimination can effectively reduce CO emission, and the contribution rate was 89.4%; Similarly, the heavy-duty vehicle elimination can reduce NOx, HC and PM10effectively,and the contribution rate would reach 65.5%, 55.8% and 93.4% respectively. The implementation of new emission standard for heavy-diesel vehicle also had obvious effect, and the four kinds of pollutants can reduce effectively. The effect of the integrated scenario considering all the control measures was remarkable, the reducing rate of CO, NOx, HC, PM10 were 46.4%, 42.1%, 8.6% and 50.6% respectively.
郭秀锐, 吉木色, 郎建垒, 陈东升, 程水源. 基于情景分析的北京市机动车污染排放控制研究[J]. 中国环境科学, 2013, 33(9): 1690-1696.
GUO Xiu-Rui, JI Mu-Se, LANG Jian-Lei, CHEN Dong-Sheng, CHENG Shui-Yuan. Based on the scenario analysis of Beijing motor vehicle emission control research. CHINA ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCECE, 2013, 33(9): 1690-1696.
