Abstract:Changes in urban buildings’ energy consumption can be determined by analyzing population family structure, age structure and urban-rural structure. It is predicted that from 2010to 2030, population in China aged 20~39 is expected to decrease from 446 million to 328 million. By 2030, the average household size will drop from 3.10to 2.48 people per household and total number of households is expected to be 550million. With changes in population structure, by 2030, the urbanization level will be 64.2%. By 2020, total construction demand is expected to be 3.14′1010m2 with residential space per capita of 37m2. Buildings’ energy consumption is expected to be 1.72′109 tce. Moreover, by 2030, total building demand will be 3.84′1010m2 with residential space per capita of 42m2 which is expected to result in energy consumption of 2.13′109 tce. If the development strategy isn’t changed, there will be much empty buildings and huge waste resource.
周伟, 米红, 余潇枫, 封宁. 人口结构变化影响下的城镇建筑能耗研究[J]. 中国环境科学, 2013, 33(10): 1904-1910.
ZHOU Wei, MI Hong, YU Xiao-Feng, FENG Ning. Research on urban building energy consumption influenced by the change of population structure. CHINA ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCECE, 2013, 33(10): 1904-1910.