Abstract:The hazardous concentrations (HCp) are the concentrations of a substance in soils which can be toxic to p% of bio-species in ecosystems and, in other words, protect (1-p)% of bio-species in ecosystem. The values of HCp are the scientific basis for setting up soil ecological quality standards. In the present study, the values of HCp for copper in soil were derived using a method of species sensitivity distribution based on copper toxicity data from Chinese soils. Correcting the derived HCp with aging factor (AF) to obtain soil ecological thresholds of copper, i e., aged HCp. Predictable models for copper ecological thresholds based on soil properties were also developed. The results showed that soil pH and cation exchange capacity were the main soil factors affecting soil ecological thresholds of copper. Soil cation exchange capacity and pH could explain the >80% variation of it. The two-factor predictable models based on soil pH and cation exchange capacity could predict copper ecological thresholds with determination coefficients (R2) from 0.820 to 0.913. While the three-factor predictable models with taking into account the effect of organic carbon on copper ecological threshold were more accurate than the two-factor models with R2 from 0.852 to 0.988. The predictable models developed in the present study proved the quantitative relationship between soil properties with copper ecological thresholds and the necessity of developing and implementing soil specific or regional soil environmental quality standards.