Abstract：Regarding the obvious features of multi-objectives, multi-elements and dynamic interlinks presented by urban complex system of society, economy and environment, the system dynamics (SD) method might be of great potential when applied into planning environmental impact assessment (PEIA) of urban plans due to the good theoretic feasibility and technical advantages. As a typical resource-based city in Shanxi province, Linfen was soliciting an imperative development transition and environmental treatment. Here, based on a comprehensive analysis of key development elements, current problems and driving factors of the city, the dynamic feedback relationships were first screened out among economic development, industrial restructure, energy saving and emission reduction, and environmental improvement. And then, a SD model was built up to simulate and assess the four proposed planning alternatives of urban transformation and development of Linfen. The results showed that if the maximum environmental restrains were employed, all the four alternatives would not be able to fulfill the planned growth targets featured by doubled per capita GDP. If the harder environmental restrains were adopted, the alternative III among the four would produce the best integrative effects on environment and economy of the city. Accordingly, the PEIA recommended the city to ensure the planned environmental improvements by slowing down the economic growth, restructuring the main industries represented by coal, coke and iron productions and power generations, strengthening energy saving and emission reduction, and lifting urban capacity of sustainable development.
蒯鹏, 李巍, 成钢, 任贵平. 系统动力学模型在城市发展规划环评中的应用[J]. 中国环境科学, 2014, 34(5): 1347-1354.
KUAI Peng, LI Wei, CHENG Gang, REN Gui-Ping. An application of system dynamics model into strategic environmental assessment of urban planning: a case study of Linfen city. CHINA ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCECE, 2014, 34(5): 1347-1354.
