Abstract:A MOS method, comprised of WRF and RTIM, is used to forecast daily average air pollutant concentration in Hangzhou from February to March and from November to December, 2013. The correlation coefficients between the predicted and observed values are all above 0.75. The resulting CSI for 24-hour average concentration of air pollutants is highly promising (89% for PM2.5, 87% for PM10, 100% for SO2, 93% for NO2, 100% for CO) and even reaches 100% for 8-hour average concentrations of O3, and the resulting POD is 93%, 95%, 100%, 100%, 100%, and 100% for each of the above pollution measures respectively. The analytic results indicate that PM2.5 is the major contributing pollutant in the aerosol in Hangzhou during the research period. The CSI and POD for haze events diagnosis, which was based on the classification of predicted PM2.5, relative humidity, and visibility, reach 89% and 93%, respectively. The high accuracy of air pollutant forecasting obtained in this study indicates that the MOS model performs well during the study period and has great potential to be applied to regional air pollution prediction in operation mode.
尤佳红, 束炯, 陈亦君, 段玉森. 基于MOS的杭州秋冬季空气污染预报和霾诊断[J]. 中国环境科学, 2014, 34(7): 1660-1666.
YOU Jia-Hong, SHU Jiong, CHEN Yi-Jun, DUAN Yu-Sen. Autumn and winter air pollution forecasting and haze events diagnosis in Hangzhou: a MOS-based approach. CHINA ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCECE, 2014, 34(7): 1660-1666.