1. College of Resources and Environment Science, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830046, China;
2. Key Laboratory of Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830046, China;
3. Key Laboratory of Xinjiang Wisdom City and Environment Modeling, Urumqi 830046, China;
4. Center for sustainability, Saint Louis University, St. Louis, MO 63108, USA;
5. Department of Earth Sciences, University of Memphis, Memphis, TN 38152, USA
This paper presented a study of land use and land cover change from 1998 to 2013, and likelihood of change through 2028 using remote sensing, geographic information system, and CA-Markov model in inland area of Ebinur lake basin in Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region. Fragstats 3.4 to construct landscape ecological risk assessment model was used. Spatial distribution of landscape ecological risks due to land use changes in the study area was analyzed. Results showed that: (1) the area of land types changed significantly in the study area from 1998 to 2013. For example, area of cultivated land was significantly increased to 152139 hm2. However, area of unutilized land was correspondingly decreased, which was 67605 hm2. From 2013 to 2028, cultivated land and the bared lakebed and salinized land increased significantly, approximately 30730 hm2 and 12427 hm2 respectively. However, area of unutilized land and water were decreased significantly from 954376 hm2 and 44889 hm2 to 921079 hm2 and 37157hm2, respectively. (2) From 1998 to 2028, spatial distributions of ecological risk have changed significantly in the study area. Areas of high ecological risk accounted for 36.6%, 7.3%, and 23.7% of the total area, respectively. From 1998 to 2028, the Moran's Ⅰ values were 0.436962, 0.442202, 0.506622, respectively. Moran's Ⅰ of the landscape pattern showed positive spatial autocorrelation, and had a rising trend. (3) From 1998 to 2028, the cultivated land distribution in the low and lower ecological risk area have increased. Its area accounted for the total area about 58.46%, 78.58%, and 79.9%, respectively. Forest, grassland ecological risk levels fluctuated in different levels.
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