美欧中印“国家自主贡献”目标的力度和公平性评估

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摘要基于气候公平的不同原则，采用动态的衡量指标，建立了公平分配未来碳排放空间的综合性框架，计算了基数、平等、能力、责任和混合方案下2010~2100年全球累积碳排放配额的地区分布，并评估了美欧中印“国家自主贡献（Intended Nationally Determined Contribution，INDC）”目标的力度，提出了各国减排目标力度应当增加的程度.结果表明：美欧中印总体的INDC力度离实现2℃目标仍有差距，不同方案下的排放差距为8.0~9.6Gt CO₂，超出2030年2℃目标下全球排放的比例为20%~24%.在各自最为有利的方案下，中印能满足实现2℃目标的公平分配方案的低限要求.而在所有方案下美欧距离实现2℃目标的公平分配要求均有差距，需要进一步提高力度.公平指标的动态和静态衡量方法，以及历史责任计量起始年的选取，对公平分配的结果影响很大.

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	崔学勤
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关键词 ：气候公平, 累积碳排放, 国家自主贡献, 减排力度和公平性

Abstract：On the basis of different principles of climate equity, and by applying dynamic measurement of equity indicators, we established an integrated framework to allocate cumulative carbon emissions permits from 2010 to 2100, calculated the regional distribution of the permits, and assessed the fairness and ambition of the Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) of US, EU, China and India respectively. The results show that there are emissions gaps of 8.0~9.6Gt CO₂ between the aggregated mitigation effects of INDCs of the four regions and the mitigation requirement of 2℃ target in 2030. China and India's INDCs can meet the 2℃ target requirement under their most favourable effort-sharing schemes, while US and EU need to improve their ambition compared with the mitigation requirement of all schemes. The results are sensitive to key methods and parameters applied, such as static or dynamic measuring of climate equity indicators, and starting year of historic cumulative emissions accounting.

Key words： climate equity cumulative carbon emissions intended nationally determined contribution fairness and ambition

收稿日期: 2016-04-20

PACS:

X24

基金资助:中国清洁发展机制基金赠款项目“主要缔约方2015协议下国家自主贡献的公平性和力度评估”（2014094）

通讯作者: 王克,讲师,wangkert@ruc.edu.cn E-mail: wangkert@ruc.edu.cn

作者简介: 崔学勤(1987-),男,浙江宁波人,中国人民大学博士研究生,主要从事能源-气候-经济模型研究.发表论文6篇.

引用本文:

崔学勤, 王克, 邹骥. 美欧中印“国家自主贡献”目标的力度和公平性评估[J]. 中国环境科学, 2016, 36(12): 3831-3840. CUI Xue-qin, WANG Ke, ZOU Ji. Assessing the fairness and ambition of intended nationally determined contributions of US, EU, China and India. CHINA ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCECE, 2016, 36(12): 3831-3840.

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http://manu36.magtech.com.cn/Jweb_zghjkx/CN/ 或 http://manu36.magtech.com.cn/Jweb_zghjkx/CN/Y2016/V36/I12/3831

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