Groundwater contamination risk assessment method based on sensitivity analysis and surrogate model
CHANG Zhen-bo1,2, LU Wen-xi1,2, XIN Xin1,2, GU Wen-long1,2, CUI Shang-jin1,2
1. Key Laboratory of Groundwater Resources and Environment Ministry of Education, Jilin University, Changchun 130012, China;
2. College of Environment and Resources, Jilin University, Changchun 130012, China
Stochastic model with Monte Carlo method was used to assess the risk of groundwater pollution. The random variables in the model were determined by the sensitivity analysis, which made the result of the groundwater risk assessment more reliable, and the evaluation process was illustrated by a hypothetical example. The results showed that the simulated output data was in accord with the normal distribution law, and normal probability density function of the integrator was the risk of contamination. The pollution risks of well 1, 2 and 3 were 0%, 78.52% and 100%, respectively. Sub regions with different risk of pollution were divided according to the pollution risk distribution map of the whole simulation area, so as to quantitatively evaluate the pollution risk of different sub area in the simulation area.
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