Synergetic effect of mean temperature and PM2.5 on emergency room visits for different diseases
ZHANG Ying1, WANG Shi-gong1, JIA Xu-wei2, FENG Xin-yuan1, HU Wen-Dong1, YANG Liu1, WANG Jia-xin1, XIAO Dan-hua1, ZHU Rong1
1. Plateau Atmosphere and Environment Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, College of Atmospheric Sciences, Chengdu University of Information Technology, Chengdu 610225, China;
2. People's Liberation Army 93544, Baoding 072655, China
To quantitatively evaluate the synergetic effect of ambient temperature (AT) and PM2.5 on different diseases' emergency room visits (ERVs) in Beijing. After considering some potential confounding factors, such as long term trend of time series, "day of week" effect, holiday effect, and relative humidity, the generalized additive models (GAMs) including non-stratification model, nonparametric bivariate response model and temperature-stratified parametric model, were used to analyze the exposure-effect relationship between PM2.5 and ERVs in different temperature conditions from 2009 to 2011 in Beijing. The results showed that, the health effect of PM2.5 significantly enhanced under higher temperature with the temperature stratification critical value increasing. The exposure-response relationship between PM2.5 and ERVs appeared most significant when 28℃ was chosen as a critical value. The effect estimates per 10μg/m3 increase in PM2.5 corresponding to 0.15% (95% confidence interval (CI):0.11%, 0.19%), 0.35%(95%CI:0.26%, 0.44%) and 0.34%(95%CI:0.09%, 0.59%) increase of total, respiratory and cardiovascular ERVs on high temperature (>28℃), respectively. However, there was no statistical significance when the temperature was less than 28℃. It means that there was a synergistic strengthening effect of high temperature and PM2.5 on public health in Beijing.
张莹, 王式功, 贾旭伟, 冯鑫媛, 胡文东, 杨柳, 王嘉鑫, 肖丹华, 朱蓉. 气温与PM2.5协同作用对疾病急诊就诊人数的影响[J]. 中国环境科学, 2017, 37(8): 3175-3182.
ZHANG Ying, WANG Shi-gong, JIA Xu-wei, FENG Xin-yuan, HU Wen-Dong, YANG Liu, WANG Jia-xin, XIAO Dan-hua, ZHU Rong. Synergetic effect of mean temperature and PM2.5 on emergency room visits for different diseases. CHINA ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCECE, 2017, 37(8): 3175-3182.
Wehner B, Birmili W, Ditas F, et al. Relationships between sub micrometer particulate air pollution and air mass history in Beijing, China, 2004~2006[J]. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions, 2008,8(3):11321-11362.
Dominci F, Peng R D, Bell M L, et al. Fine particulate air pollution and hospital admission for cardiovascular and respiratory diseases[J]. JAMA, 2006,295(10):1127.
Chung J Y, Honda Y, Hong Y C, et al. Ambient temperature and mortality:an international study in four capital cities of East Asia[J]. Sci Total Environ, 2009,408(2):390-396.
Lin S, Luo M, Walker R J, et al. Extreme High Temperatures and Hospital Admissions for Respiratory and Cardiovascular Diseases[J]. Epidemiology, 2009,20(5):738-746.
[9]
Curriero F C, Heiner K S, Samet J M, et al. Temperature and mortality in 11cities of the Eastern United States[J]. American Journal of Epidemiology, 2002,155(1):80-87.
[10]
Kan H D, Jia J, Chen B H. Temperature and daily mortality in Shanghai:A time-series study[J]. Biomed Environ Sci, 2003, 16(2):133-139.
[11]
Ebi K L, Exuzides K A, Lau E, et al. Weather changes associated with hospitalizations for cardiovascular diseases and stroke in California, 1983~1998[J]. International Journal of Biometeorology, 2004,49(1):48-58.
[12]
Li G, Zhou M, Cai Y, et al. Does temperature enhance acute mortality effects of ambient particle pollution in Tianjin City, China[J]. Science of the Total Environment, 2011,409:1811-1817.
[13]
Meng X, Zhang Y, Zhao Z, et al. Temperature modifies the acute effect of particulate air pollution on mortality in eight Chinese cities[J]. Science of the Total Environment, 2012,435-436(7):215-221.
[14]
Ren C, Tong S. Temperature modifies the health effects of particulate matter in Brisbane, Australia[J]. International Journal of Biometeorology, 2006,51(2):87-96.
Hastie T, Tibshirani R. Generalized additive models for medical research[J]. Statistical Methods in Medical Research, 1990,4:187-196.
[17]
GB 3095-2012国家环境空气质量标准[S].
[18]
Li P, Xin J, Wang Y, et al. Time-series analysis of mortality effects from airborne particulate matter size fractions in Beijing[J]. Atmospheric Environment, 2013,81(2):253-262.
[19]
Li G, Sun J, Jayasinghe R, et al. Temperature Modifies the Effects of Particulate Matter on Non-Accidental Mortality:A Comparative Study of Beijing, China and Brisbane, Australia[J]. Public Health Research, 2012,2(2):21-27.
[20]
Stafoggia M, Schwartz J, Forastiere F, et al. Does temperature modify the association between air pollution and mortality? A multicity case-crossover analysis in Italy[J]. American Journal of Epidemiology, 2008,167(12):1476-1485.
[21]
Ren C, Tong S. Temperature modifies the health effects of particulate matter in Brisbane, Australia[J]. International Journal of Biometeorology, 2006,51(2):87-96.
[22]
Ren C, Williams G M, Mengersen K, et al. Does temperature modify short-term effects of ozone on total mortality in 60large eastern US communities?-An assessment using the NMMAPS data[J]. Environment International, 2008,34(4):451-458.
