中国区域能源效率对霾污染的空间效应——基于空间杜宾模型的实证分析

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摘要

以中国29个省市自治区为研究对象，并以2001~2015年PM_2.5年度均值作为衡量霾污染的指标，构建了全要素能源效率对中国霾污染影响的空间杜宾模型.研究表明：中国绝大部分省市的霾污染演变趋势具有倒"U"的特点，这说明中国的霾污染在2001~2015年间经历了先上升后下降的总体变化趋势；无论是采用地理相邻权重还是经济权重，中国省际间的霾污染均存在显著空间集聚效应，这揭示霾污染的治理与控制需要地区间建立恰当的合作机制，避免出现"损人利己"现象；在对一系列经济社会因素控制的基础上，全要素能源效率对霾污染存在显著的负向影响并且具有显著的空间溢出效应，这表明全要素能源效率的提高不仅会显著降低本地区的霾污染水平，还将对周边地区的霾污染产生显著的负向影响；分解方程结果显示，技术进步和技术效率对霾污染的负向效应显著，并且技术进步的直接效应大于技术效率，但两者的间接效应均显著大于直接效应，这揭示了技术扩散对霾污染具有重要的潜在促降效应.因此，在治理霾污染的过程中，要通过不断优化能源结构和开发新能源技术以发挥全要素能源效率的减霾效果，以及通过地区间的交流与合作发挥技术扩散效应在霾污染治理中的作用.

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	张小波
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关键词 ：霾污染, 全要素能源效率, 空间溢出效应, 空间杜宾模型

Abstract：

A new spatial Durbin model was built to study the impact of total factor energy efficiency (TFEE) on haze pollution in China. The built model was utilized to analyze the PM_2.5 data of 29 provinces in China during 2001~2015. The results showed that the haze pollution in most of provinces presented a reverse “U” shape and the development trend of the haze pollution was decreasing. No matter the geographical neighboring weights or the economic weights were considered, there existed a significant spatial agglomeration effect in the haze pollution between the provinces of China. In addition, when controlling other factors, the TFEE was found to have a significant negative and spatial spillover effect on the haze pollution. It showed that improving the TFEE would not only reduce the haze pollution of local regions but also had a significantly negative impact on the haze pollution of their neighbors. From the results of decomposition of the TFEE, it was found that the technical progress and the technical efficiency both have significantly negative impacts on the haze pollution. It was also observed that the technological progress had greater direct effect than the technological efficiency, but the indirect effects of both were significantly greater than the direct effects of both. This revealed that technology diffusion played an important potential role for the haze pollution. In conclusion, to promote the potential effect of the TFEE in tackling the haze pollution, it would be very important to optimize industrial structure, explore new energy technology and strengthen the exchanges and cooperation in technology among regions.

Key words： haze pollution total factor energy efficiency spatial spillover Effect Spatial Durbin Model

收稿日期: 2018-09-30

PACS:

X24

基金资助:

国家社科基金重大项目（17ZDA093）

通讯作者: 王建州,教授,wangjz@dufe.edu.cn E-mail: wangjz@dufe.edu.cn

作者简介: 张小波(1988-),男,河南周口人,东北财经大学统计学院博士研究生,研究方向为资源与环境综合评价、能源市场建模与预测.发表论文3篇.

引用本文:

张小波, 王建州. 中国区域能源效率对霾污染的空间效应——基于空间杜宾模型的实证分析[J]. 中国环境科学, 2019, 39(4): 1371-1379. ZHANG Xiao-bo, WANG Jian-zhou. The spatial effect of region energy efficiency on haze pollution—Empirical analysis based on the Spatial Durbin Model. CHINA ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCECE, 2019, 39(4): 1371-1379.

链接本文:

http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/CN/ 或 http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/CN/Y2019/V39/I4/1371

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