Abstract：The paper introduced the Lotka-Volterra model to predict the trend of passenger car competition in China in the next 30years. Six pollutants of CHG, VOC, CO, SO2, PM2.5, and NOx were included to update the life cycle list; then policy impact models and sensitivity models were established to evaluate the emission reduction effects of electrification, lightweight and clean policy scenarios. The main competitiveness of the passenger car market come from the competition between new energy and traditional energy. Blade electric passenger cars and hybrid passenger cars will develop in an S-shaped curve, meanwhile, the market share of gasoline passenger cars will be reduced from 92% to 1%. From the perspective of life cycle, blade electric passenger cars had the best emissions reduction benefits for CHG, VOC, and CO, which was 20%~85%. Gasoline and natural gas passenger cars had the best emissions reduction benefits for SO2 and PM2.5, which was 50.0%. In three scenarios, the tax subsidy policy was the most sensitive factor, and the optimal emission reduction scenario for CHG, VOC and CO was electrification scenario, the optimal emission reduction scenario for PM2.5 and NOx was clean scenario, and the optimal emission reduction scenario for SO2 was lightweight scenario.
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