土地生态安全二维预警模型构建及应用——以临湘市为例

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摘要引入生态可持续性指数,在风险矩阵的框架下与土地生态安全指数相结合,构建了土地生态安全二维预警模型,并应用于临湘市土地生态安全预警.研究表明:土地生态安全指数逐年上升,土地生态系统自身稳定性及其对社会经济发展的支撑能力不断提高;生态可持续性指数逐年下降,土地生态系统对社会经济发展的支撑能力的可持续性逐渐减弱,如不采取相应措施,未来将难以避免跌入不可持续状态;2005~2019年土地生态安全警情呈“中警-轻警-中警-轻警”的波折变化,最终稳定为轻警,预测2020~2025年将延续轻警,跌入重警的可能性较小,但仍存在跌回中警的风险.临湘市应通过发展生态友好型产业､加大环保投入､有序扩张第二产业和建设用地､节制消费和应用新技术提高生产力等措施,综合改善土地生态安全状况.研究认为二维预警模型可有效避免传统模型预警失真的问题,有利于提高土地生态安全预警结果的全面性､前瞻性和合理性.

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	曹刚
	刘艳中
	张祚
	陈勇
	宋湘湘

关键词 ：土地生态安全, 二维预警, 生态可持续性指数, 风险矩阵

Abstract：A two-dimensional early warning model was established by combining the land ecological security index with the ecological sustainability index under the framework of the risk matrix. And then, it was applied to Linxiang’s early warning for land ecological security. The land ecological security index increased yearly. The stability and socio-economic supporting capacity of land ecosystem were enhanced continuously. The ecological sustainability index decreased continuously. The sustainability of land ecosystem’s supporting capacity to socio-economic development was weakened gradually and it would inevitably become unsustainable without any measures. From 2005 to 2019, the warning degrees of land ecological security showed a fluctuated trend of “middle alert-light alert-middle alert-light alert”. It is predicted that the “light alert” will continue from 2020 to 2025. The possibility of falling into “heavy alert” is highly unlikely. But there is still a risk of falling back into the “middle alert”. The research suggests that land ecological security of Linxiang should be comprehensively improved by developing eco-friendly industries, increasing investment in environmental protection, expanding the secondary industry and construction land orderly, reducing consumption, and applying new technologies to improve productivity. It is significant that the two-dimensional early warning model can effectively avoid the problem of distortion in traditional models. The innovation of the two-dimensional early warning model is beneficial to improve the comprehensiveness, rationality, and forward-looking of the early warning results of land ecological security.

Key words： land ecological security two-dimensional early warning ecological sustainability index risk-matrix

收稿日期: 2021-09-28

PACS:	X24
	X9

基金资助:国家自然科学基金资助项目(72174071,41971237)

通讯作者: 刘艳中，教授,Liuyanzhong@wust.edu.cn E-mail: Liuyanzhong@wust.edu.cn

作者简介: 曹刚(1996-),男,贵州龙里人,硕士研究生,主要从事土地生态安全研究.

引用本文:

曹刚, 刘艳中, 张祚, 陈勇, 宋湘湘. 土地生态安全二维预警模型构建及应用——以临湘市为例[J]. 中国环境科学, 2022, 42(5): 2305-2314. CAO Gang, LIU Yan-zhong, ZHANG Zuo, CHEN Yong, SONG Xiang-xiang. Construction and application of two-dimensional early warning model for land ecological security—— A case study of Linxiang City. CHINA ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCECE, 2022, 42(5): 2305-2314.

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http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/CN/ 或 http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/CN/Y2022/V42/I5/2305

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