碳交易试点政策减排效应实证评估及机制分析

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Abstract This study utilizes panel data from 30 Chinese provinces from 2000 to 2021. We treat the carbon trading policy as a quasi-natural experiment, and apply a multi-period difference-in-differences method to systematically evaluate its impact on carbon emissions. The results indicate that: after the introduction of the carbon trading policy, the total carbon emissions in the pilot regions decrease by 13.2%, while carbon intensity and per capita carbon emissions fall by 21.3% and 17.2%, respectively. The carbon trading policy significantly reduces carbon intensity in the pilot regions; however, the impacts on total carbon emissions and per capita emissions are not significant. Carbon reduction through trading primarily relies on improvements in industrial structure, with weaker mediation effects from carbon trading prices, market activity, and low-carbon technology. There may be complementary and synergistic effects among different policies. Although carbon trading plays a positive role in promoting carbon reduction, its synergistic effects on SO₂, NO_x and PM_2.5 still need to be enhanced. These results provide important empirical support for understanding carbon trading policies and offer a scientific basis for refining the carbon trading system as well as guiding future adjustments and optimizations of carbon market policies.

Key words： carbon emission trading multi-period difference-in-differences model environmental impact carbon neutral

Received: 16 July 2024

PACS:

X196

Corresponding Authors: 陈操操,研究员,ecoduron@163.com E-mail: ecoduron@163.com

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	CHEN Cao-cao
	YU Feng-ju
	ZHANG Yue
	LIU Geng-yuan
	WANG Xin-shuang
	ZHENG Kai-yun
	HU Jing
	WANG Li-bo
	SONG Dan
	HU Yong-feng
	SUN Fen
	SUN Da-li
	MA Ning

Cite this article:

CHEN Cao-cao,YU Feng-ju,ZHANG Yue等. Empirical evaluation and mechanism analysis of domestic carbon trading pilot policies on emission reduction[J]. CHINA ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCECE, 2025, 45(3): 1674-1685.

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http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/EN/ OR http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/EN/Y2025/V45/I3/1674

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