林地保护政策驱动的城市碳库时空演变规律——以广东江门为例

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Abstract To explore the patterns of forest carbon storage evolution influenced by the implementation of dual-carbon policies, This study selects Jiangmen City, a key ecological barrier in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, as a case study. Using land cover and carbon density data from five periods between 2000 and 2020, the study employs the InVEST model to quantitatively assess the area's carbon storage, in conjunction with the Policy Modeling Consistency (PMC) index model and the Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (Lasso) regression model to analyze the quality of forestry policies and their impact on carbon storage. The results indicate that forest and agricultural lands were the principal contributors to carbon storage changes in Jiangmen City. From 2000 to 2015, these lands was significantly converted to built-up areas, causing carbon storage to decrease from 34.22×10⁶t to 33.59×10⁶t, accounting for 72.8% of the decrease in the Greater Bay Area's carbon storage during the same period, which represented a 14.35% reduction. After 2015, the implementation of subsidy policies related to forest city development resulted in an increase in the area of carbon storage exceeding areas of loss from 2015 to 2020, with a net increase of 0.5% in carbon storage. The “incentive safeguard” variable was identified as a principal factor in this increase. Spatially, the areas of increased and decreased carbon storage in Jiangmen City exhibited clustered distributions, reflecting the “forest surrounding cities and trees entering cities” policy. Based on the joint spatial distribution characteristics of carbon storage density and building density, the study proposes carbon sequestration enhancement strategies for different functional zones, including forest protection in ecological conservation areas, carbon planning in wilderness areas, spatial transformation in central old urban areas, and garden construction in newly developed urban areas. These recommendations provide theoretical support and practical examples for formulating sustainable urban development policies.

Key words： carbon storage spatio-temporal variation policy driven Jiangmen City InVEST model

Received: 27 August 2024

PACS:

X32

Corresponding Authors: 杨旭楠,责任作者,研究员,yangxn@gdim.cn E-mail: yangxn@gdim.cn

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	LIN Hai-qing
	YANG Xu-nan
	HUANG Xin-yi
	ZHANG Yi-dong
	WANG Tao
	XU Mei-ying

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LIN Hai-qing,YANG Xu-nan,HUANG Xin-yi等. Spatio-temporal evolution roles of urban carbon pool driven by forest policies—Jiangmen City (Guangdong, China) as an example[J]. CHINA ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCECE, 2025, 45(4): 2135-2146.

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http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/EN/ OR http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/EN/Y2025/V45/I4/2135

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