水华过程水质参数与浮游植物定量关系的研究——以太湖梅梁湾为例

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Abstract

Considering the lag effects of various aquatic variables (nutrients, physical or chemical parameters) to proliferation of phytoplankton in algal blooms, time series analysis was applied in this study to analyze the influence and quantitative relation of aquatic variables to algal blooms by using monitoring data of Meiliang Bay in Taihu Lake (Ch:Taihu) from 2000 to 2012. The results showed that there was a long-run equilibrium relationship between concentration of Chl-a and total phosphorus (TP), N/P, water temperature (WT). The results of Granger causality models and vector autoregression model demonstrated that concentration of TP, N/P and WT were the Granger causes of Chl-a. The results also provided an accurate quantitative equation of these variables. Assuming that other variables remain constant, if concentration of TP, N/P and WT were increased by 1%, concentration of Chl-a would increase by 0.97%, 0.078% and 0.55% respectively. This study provided a new, alternative method to explore the influence of aquatic parameters to algal blooms and could advance the understanding of process of algal blooms by taking lagged variables of time series into account.

Key words： eutrophication nutrient co-integration test granger causality test vector autoregression model

Received: 17 September 2017

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	Articles by authors
	GUO Wen-jing
	FU Zhi-you
	WANG Hao
	WU Feng-chang

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GUO Wen-jing,FU Zhi-you,WANG Hao等. The quantitative relation of aquatic parameters and phytoplankton biomass in the process of algal blooms-the case of Meiliang Bay in Taihu Lake[J]. CHINA ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCECE, 2018, 38(4): 1517-1525.

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http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/EN/ OR http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/EN/Y2018/V38/I4/1517

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