考虑边界条件不确定性的地下水污染风险分析

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Abstract In order to analyze the influence of boundary conditions' uncertainty on the output results of groundwater contaminant transport numerical simulation model, the Monte Carlo method was used to illustrate an example, and the simulation results were analyzed in term of pollution risk prediction. To reduce the large amount of computational load generated by repeated calls of the simulation model while ensure the high accuracy,a boundary condition (the first type boundary condition-water head value) was used as a random variable to establish a Kriging surrogate model of the groundwater contaminant transport simulation model. The results showed that the uncertainty of boundary conditions had a great influence on the prediction results of groundwater contaminant transport numerical simulation model. The distribution of contaminant plume in the study area was significantly different from the ones that without considering the uncertainty of boundary conditions. Taking statistics and analysing on the Monte Carlo simulation results of groundwater contaminant transport numerical simulation can assess the reliability degree of the predicted pollutant concentration of observation wells 1, 2, 3, and also predicted the pollution risk of observation wells 1, 2, 3 in the in the study area.

Key words： groundwater boundary condition numerical simulation model surrogate model uncertainty analysis risk analysis

Received: 12 November 2017

X523

Corresponding Authors: 卢文喜,教授,luwenxi@jlu.edu.cn E-mail: luwenxi@jlu.edu.cn

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	Articles by authors
	LI Jiu-hui
	LU Wen-xi
	XIN xin
	LUO Jian-nan
	CHANG Zhen-bo

Cite this article:

LI Jiu-hui,LU Wen-xi,XIN xin等. Groundwater pollution risk analysis considering the uncertainty of boundary conditions[J]. CHINA ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCECE, 2018, 38(6): 2167-2174.

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http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/EN/ OR http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/EN/Y2018/V38/I6/2167

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