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| Stochastic simulation and uncertainty analysis of multi-phase flow of groundwater polluted by DNAPLs |
| WANG Han1,2, LU Wen-xi1,2, LI Jiu-hui1,2, CHANG Zhen-bo1,2, HOU Ze-Yu1,2 |
1. College of Environment and Resources, Jilin University, Changchun 130012, China;
2. Key Laboratory of Groundwater Resources and Environmental Minintry of Education, Jilin University, Changchun 130012, China |
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Abstract Hydrogeological parameters were uncertain. In order to analyze the influence of hydrogeological parameter uncertainty on the numerical model of multi-phase flow of groundwater polluted by DNAPLs, aimed at making a research on hypothetical example, this paper firstly established a numerical simulation model of multi-phase flow of groundwater polluted by DNAPLs in research area. Then, the sensitivity analysis method was used to select the largest parameters that affect the output of the model as stochastic variables. In order to reduce the computation burden caused by the repeated call of simulation model, the Kriging method was used to construct a surrogate modle to finish the stochastic Monte Carlo simulation. Finally, the stochastic simulation results were analyzed statistically and the pollution risk assessment was completed. The results showed that the risk of pollution of single well can be estimated by using the pollutant concentration distribution function. The whole area can be divided into different risk areas under different pollution levels, which can provide a richer and more scientific reference to groundwater pollution prevention and control.
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Received: 20 November 2017
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