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Factors decomposition of industrial air pollutant emissions in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and surrounding areas based on LMDI model analysis |
WEN Yang, MA Zhong, WU Yu-han, ZHOU Kai, SHI Lei, WANG Meng |
School of Environment & Natural Resource, Renmin University of China, Beijing 100872, China |
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Abstract Based on Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI), the main impact factors of industrial air pollutant emissions in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and surrounding areas from 2011 to 2015 were explored. The total effect of emission change in the above regions were decomposed into population effect, economic scale effect, industrial structure effect, energy consumption effect, energy structure effect and emission intensity effect. The results showed that both population effect and economic scale effect were basically positive, while industrial structure effect, energy consumption effect and emission intensity effect were mostly negative. Due to few changes of energy structure in the above regions within the period from 2011 to 2015, energy structure effect made a few contributions to the total effect, lower than 0.52%. As the situation in Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, Henan, Shandong and Shanxi were differed, each effect contributed differently. The growing population and economic scale, declining proportion of industrial added value, energy consumption intensity and emission intensity impacted population effect, economic scale effect, industrial structure effect, energy consumption effect and emission intensity effect. During the formulation of emission reduction policy, the accumulated contribution value and contribution degree of each effect should be considered. Joint emission reduction policies and measures could be made to address the main impact factors which coexisted in these regions. For other main impact factors which specially mattered to any provinces or cities, policy was advised to suit local conditions.
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Received: 23 April 2018
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