全产业链视角下建筑碳排放路径模拟:基于RICE-LEAP模型

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Abstract This study develops a RICE-LEAP model, an integrated assessment model containing end-use sectors in the context of China, to dynamically simulate building carbon(C) emission path via the whole supply chain and identify the structural characteristics from 2020 to 2050. The results show that: ① Compared to the business-as-usual scenario, the reduction in additional cumulative emissions under 1.5℃ scenario from 2020 to 2050 will reach 129.74 Gt CO₂, and the mitigation of additional cumulative emissions from the building supply chain will be 57.53 Gt CO₂, accounting for 44.28% of the total C emission reduction. ② The building sector is a sector with low direct C emissions but high indirect C emissions. The direct onsite C emissions from the building sector only account for a very small part of building embodied C emissions with a proportion ranging from 9.46% to 11.75%. ③ The reduction rate of embodied C emissions is higher than that of operational C emissions of buildings in all scenarios; because the embodied C emission reduction in the building sector depends mainly on the decarbonization process of the industry. ④ Coal consumption is still currently dominant in building energy consumption but shows a decline trend under all three scenarios while the proportion of electricity consumption represents an obvious increase trend as a result of building electricification.

Key words： building carbon emissions scenario analysis RICE-LEAP model whole industry chain

Received: 08 February 2022

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	Articles by authors
	HONG Jing-ke
	LI Yuan-chao
	GUQ Si-yue

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HONG Jing-ke,LI Yuan-chao,GUQ Si-yue. Simulating building carbon emission path with a RICE - LEAP model from the perspective of the whole supply chain[J]. CHINA ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCECE, 2022, 42(9): 4389-4398.

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http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/EN/ OR http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/EN/Y2022/V42/I9/4389

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