上海市PM<sub>2.5</sub>污染相关的死亡负担和经济健康损失评估

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Abstract Based on the annual average concentrations of fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) in 16 districts of Shanghai in 2021. the Global Exposure Mortality Model (GEMM) and the Value of Statistic Life (VSL) method were used in the analysis. This study aimed to assess the PM_2.5-related mortality burden and the corresponding health economic losses based on current pollution levels and different PM_2.5 pollution control scenarios in Shanghai. The results showed that although the annual average PM_2.5 concentration in Shanghai in 2021 (27µg/m³) was lower than the national secondary annual PM_2.5 standard (35µg/m³), the excess PM_2.5-related deaths still amounted to 13,274 (95%CI: 10,110~21,483) relative to the counterfactual annual average PM_2.5 concentration (2.4µg/m³), with an attributable fraction of 9.5% (95%CI: 7.3%~15.5%). The corresponding health economic loss was 66.52billion (95%CI: 50.67~107.66) yuan, accounting for 1.5% (95%CI: 1.2%~2.5%) of the gross domestic product (GDP) of Shanghai. Compared with the current estimates, if the annual average concentration of PM_2.5 was reduced to the latest Air Quality Guideline level (5µg/m³) proposed by the World Health Organization (WHO), the number of PM_2.5-related deaths would be decreased by 9,873, and the corresponding health economic loss would be decreased by 74.4% in Shanghai. Therefore, it is suggested that more stringent local ambient air quality standards should be established to protect public health from air pollution in Shanghai.

Key words： fine particulate matter global exposure mortality model mortality burden economic loss

Received: 10 December 2022

PACS:

X503.1

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	ZHOU Lu
	NIU Yue
	CHEN Ren-jie
	KAN Hai-dong

Cite this article:

ZHOU Lu,NIU Yue,CHEN Ren-jie等. Assessment of PM_2.5-related mortality burden and health economic loss in Shanghai[J]. CHINA ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCECE, 2023, 43(7): 3741-3747.

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http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/EN/ OR http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/EN/Y2023/V43/I7/3741

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