多情景模拟区域土地利用变化对碳储量的影响

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Abstract Taking the Dongting Lake Ecological and Economic Zone as an example, this study uses the InVEST model to evaluate the effect of land use changes from 1990to 2020on carbon reserve. The study also uses the Markov-FLUS model to simulate the land use changes and their effects on carbon reserve in 2030 and 2060 under four scenarios:natural evolution, arable land conservation, ecological conservation, and comprehensive conservation. The results show that the ecological and economic zone of Dongting Lake from 1990 to 2020 shows a decrease in the area of arable land, forest land, and grassland and a continuous increase in the area of the watershed, construction land, and unused land. The overall carbon stock in the region is high, but the change in land use causes the regional carbon sequestration capacity and potential to decrease. The regional carbon stock decreases by 0.433×10⁶t in total from 1990 to 2020. Under the four scenarios, the region shows a more significant change in construction land in 2030 and 2060. In the integrated scenario, the increase of construction land is better controlled. The carbon stocks in the Dongting Lake eco-economic zone in 2030 and 2060 are respectively 19.927×10⁶t and 19.696×10⁶t for the natural evolution scenario, 19.891×10⁶t and 19.903×10⁶t for the arable land protection scenario, 19.952×10⁶t and 19.873×10⁶t for the ecological protection scenario, and 20.004×10⁶t and 19.949×10⁶t for the comprehensive protection scenario. Considering a comprehensive assessment that takes into account both the utilization of arable land and the preservation of ecological systems, it becomes evident that the regional capacity for carbon sequestration demonstrates a significant degree of robustness. The study outcomes contribute to the establishment of a spatial arrangement of national land areas with a high carbon sink potential, thereby serving as a foundation for attaining regional carbon equilibrium and optimizing land use structure.

Key words： land-use change carbon reserve multiple scenario simulation InVEST model Markov-FLUS model Dongting lake ecological economic zone

Received: 22 March 2023

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X703.5

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	WANG Zhi-yuan
	WU Fan
	WAN Ding
	ZHANG Kao
	LI Long-bin
	HUANG Chun-hua

Cite this article:

WANG Zhi-yuan,WU Fan,WAN Ding等. Multi-scenario simulation of the impact of regional land use change on carbon reserve[J]. CHINA ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCECE, 2023, 43(11): 6063-6078.

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http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/EN/ OR http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/EN/Y2023/V43/I11/6063

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