壶瓶山国家级自然保护区毛冠鹿适生区评估

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Abstract The Hupingshan National Nature Reserve (NNR) has been designated as a location for releasing the South China tiger (Panthera tigris amoyensis) into the wild. Assessing the suitable habitat for the South China tiger is the primary task of implementing wild reintroduction. The Tufted deer (Elaphodus cephalophos) is one of the three primary prey species of the South China tiger within the reserve. Hence, assessing the distribution of the suitable habitat of the Tufted deer can provide a reference for effectively estimating the suitable area for the South China tiger. Previous studies on habitat selection of the Tufted deer did not consider the impact of climate factors and climate change on its habitat utilization and distribution. The distribution data of the Tufted deer and environmental factors were employed in this study. The MaxEnt model optimized by the parameter combinations was applied to evaluate the distribution of suitable habitats for the Tufted deer under the current (1970~2000a) climate scenario. Then, the distributions of suitable habitats for the Tufted deer under two climate scenarios, SSP126 (the low carbon emission scenario under strict environmental policies) and SSP585 (the high carbon emission scenario under relaxed environmental policies), during the 2050s (2040~2060a) and 2090s (2080~2100a) periods were predicted, respectively. Finally, the suitable habitats for different periods were divided into high, medium, and low suitable levels. The results showed that the contribution of the precipitation of the wettest quarter and the mean temperature of the coldest quarter to the habitat selection of the Tufted deer was 56%. The total area of the high and medium suitable habitats was 486.5km², accounting for72.9% of the total study area in the current climate scenario. Under the future climate conditions, the total areas of the high and medium suitable habitats were 553.7km² (2050s) and 597.2km² (2090s) in the SSP126 scenario, accounting for 83.0% (2050s) and 89.4% (2090s) of the total protected area, respectively. In the SSP585scenario, the total areas of high and medium suitable habitats were 382.0km² (2050s) and 139.5km² (2090s), accounting for 57.2% (2050s) and 20.9% (2090s) of the total study area, respectively. Meanwhile, the climate factors were revealed to be the main influencing factors on the habitat selection of the Tufted deer. Furthermore, the different development paths of human beings might induce the variations in the climate conditions, which would pose a significant impact on the distribution of suitable habitats for the Tufted deer. Therefore, recognizing the impact of climate factors and climate change on the habitat selection of the Tufted deer is necessary for the accurate evaluation and prediction of the suitable habitat in the Hupingshan NNR. Findings from this study can provide important references for the protection of the Tufted deer population and the implementation of the wild release plan for the South China tiger.

Key words： Hupingshan reserve PElaphodus cephalophus MaxEnt model climate change suitable area

Received: 25 October 2023

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X171.1

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	LIU Qi
	TANG Tao
	LI Jian-jun
	KANG Zu-jie
	YU Gui-qing
	YANG Cun-cun

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LIU Qi,TANG Tao,LI Jian-jun等. Assessment of the suitable habitat for the Tufted deer (PElaphodus cephalophus) in the Hupingshan National Nature Reserve[J]. CHINA ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCECE, 2024, 44(5): 2619-2629.

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http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/EN/ OR http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/EN/Y2024/V44/I5/2619

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