基于不确定性分析的畜禽粪污土地承载力评估——以排泄系数不确定性为例

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Abstract Uncertainty analysis was used to assess the risk of nitrogen and phosphorus pollution from the application of livestock manure to farmland in Heilongjiang Province, a case study for promoting the comprehensive use of agricultural waste. The sensitivity of the land bearing capacity for livestock manure to the nutrients in straw and manure was analyzed using statistical yearbooks and official reports. At the same time, an analysis of nutrients exceeding the land bearing capacity based on the uncertainty of excretion coefficients was also conducted. The results showed that sensitivity analysis indicated that nitrogen bearing capacity was more sensitive to nutrients in straw, and no nutrient overload occurred. Phosphorus bearing capacity was more sensitive to nutrients in manure, and phosphorus nutrient overload occurred in Daqing, Suihua, Mudanjiang, Qitaihe, Qiqihar, Harbin, and Yichun. Uncertainty analysis showed that the probability of phosphorus nutrient overload was less than 40% in Harbin, Qiqihar, Yichun, and Qitaihe, while the probability of phosphorus nutrient overload was 91%, 63% and 65% in Daqing, Suihua and Mudanjiang, respectively. In other cities, the probability of nutrient overload was 0. According to the uncertainty analysis, the probability of phosphorus nutrient overload is low in most areas, but there are high risks of overload in Daqing, Suihua and Mudanjiang City. Therefore, it is necessary to strengthen the monitoring of phosphorus emission, increase anti-pollution measures, and rationally adjust the scale of aquaculture.

Key words： livestock manure straw land bearing capacity excretion coefficient uncertainty analysis sensitivity analysis

Received: 15 March 2023

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X713

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	WANG Sheng-wei
	LI Xiang
	LI Yan-xia
	ZHAO Yan

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WANG Sheng-wei,LI Xiang,LI Yan-xia等. Assessment of land bearing capacity of livestock manure based on uncertainty analysis—Taking the uncertainty of excretion coefficients as an example[J]. CHINA ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCECE, 2023, 43(S1): 186-196.

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http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/EN/ OR http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/EN/Y2023/V43/IS1/186

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