基于动态物质流的北京市城乡住房建筑垃圾产生量模拟预测

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Abstract To promote the reduction and recycling of construction and demolition (C&D) waste in housing, a dynamic material flow model was established to simulate the evolving characteristics of housing flow-stock in both urban and rural areas of Beijing from 1949 to 2100. The amount of urban and rural housing C&D waste generated was predicted. The results showed that from 1949 to 2100, cyclical fluctuations were observed in the volume of new construction and demolition of housing in Beijing’s urban and rural areas, with the housing stock following an S-shaped curve. The area of new housing construction in urban and rural regions peaked at 31.456million m² in 2012 and 7.887 million m² in 2015, while the demolition area reached its maximum of 15.008 million m² in 2094 and 4.535 million m² in 2016. The saturation values of housing stock in urban and rural areas were 800 and 1.247 million m², respectively. By the mid-to-late 21 st century, Beijing was anticipated to experience a surge in C&D waste generation, which will reach its peak and then persist at elevated levels with periodic fluctuations. The apex of C&D waste generation was projected to occur in 2094, with an estimated total output of 23.964 million tons. Cement, brick, sand, and gravel were the predominant components of C&D waste by weight, accounting for 90.2%~95.5% of the total weight of housing C&D waste in urban areas and 92.2%~94.1% of that in rural areas, while the weight proportion of iron and steel ranged from 0.1% to 4.5% and 0.1% to 3.0%, respectively. The long-lifetime scenario could defer the peak of C&D waste, with a maximum reduction potential of 72.0%. Additionally, recycling C&D waste as urban minerals could lead to a dramatic decrease in future demand for primary steel, with a reduction of up to 98.5%.

Key words： dynamic material flow analysis flow-stock material metabolism construction and demolition waste urban mining

Received: 03 September 2024

PACS:

X24

Corresponding Authors: 张泽乾,责任作者,助理研究员,zhang.zeqian@craes.org.cn E-mail: zhang.zeqian@craes.org.cn

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	DONG Li
	LIU Jing-yang
	ZHANG Ze-qian
	ZHANG Min

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DONG Li,LIU Jing-yang,ZHANG Ze-qian等. Simulation and prediction of construction and demolition waste from urban and rural housing in Beijing based on dynamic material flow analysis[J]. CHINA ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCECE, 2025, 45(4): 2041-2052.

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http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/EN/ OR http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/EN/Y2025/V45/I4/2041

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