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城市化、外商投资和产业结构因素对中国环境的影响
The impact of urbanization, FDI and industrial structure effects on China's environment
基于扩展的STIRPAT理论框架，采用动态空间面板模型分析方法，研究城市化、外商直接投资和产业结构因素对中国环境污染的长期与短期空间溢出效应.结果表明，一个地区的城市化率每提高10%，短期会降低当地CO2排放水平的0.02%、降低邻近地区CO2排放水平的0.04%；而从长期看会降低本地CO2排放水平的0.08%、降低临近地区CO2排放水平的0.2%.在2006年以前，一个地区的能源强度每降低1%，会在短期降低本地CO2排放水平的0.31%、降低邻近地区CO2排放水平的0.09%；从长期看则会降低本地CO2排放水平的1.3%、降低邻近地区CO2排放水平的0.55%.在2006年后，这种能源强度的变化会使碳排放短期内总共降低0.45%，长期看总共降低2.06%.城市化率每提高10%短期内会减少本地0.05%的SO2排放、减少邻近地区0.1%的SO2排放.第二产业比重每降低10%，会分别降低本地和临近区域SO2排放水平的0.03%和0.09%.人口规模每扩大1%，会提升邻近区域SO2排放水平的0.55%.能源强度每降低1%，会降低本地SO2排放水平的0.12%.
Based on the extended STIRPAT theoretical framework, the dynamic spatial panel data model analysis method is used to study the long-term and short-term spatial spillover effects of urbanization, FDI and industrial structural factors on China's environmental pollution. The results show that every 10% increase in the urbanization rate of a region will reduce the local CO2 emission level by 0.02% in the short term, and reduce the CO2 emission level by 0.04% in the neighboring area; and in the long term, it will reduce the local CO2 emission level by 0.08% and the neighboring region's CO2 emission level by 0.2%. Before 2006, every 1% reduction in energy intensity in a region will reduce the local CO2 emission level by 0.31% in the short-term and reduce 0.09% of the neighboring region's CO2 emission level; in the long term, it will reduce the local CO2 emission level by 1.3% and reduce 0.55% of CO2 emission level in neighboring region. After 2006, this change in energy intensity will reduce carbon emissions by a total of 0.45% in the short term and a total of 2.06% in the long term. Every 10% increase in urbanization rate will reduce the local 0.05% of SO2 emissions, reduce the SO2 emissions of neighboring areas by 0.1%. Every 10% reduction in the proportion of secondary industry will reduce the local and neighboring SO2 emissions levels 0.03% and 0.09%, respectively. Every expanded 1% population size will be increased by 0.55% of the neighboring region's SO2 emission levels. Every 1% reduction in energy intensity will be reduced by 0.12% local SO2 emission levels.
产业结构 / 城市化 / 动态空间面板模型 / 环境污染 / 外商直接投资
dynamic spatial panel model / environment pollution / FDI / industrial structure / urbanization
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国家自然科学基金项目（71901222，71974202）；教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目（17YJC630236）；中南财经政法大学中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目（2722020JX005）
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