中国高污染产业转移与整体环境污染——基于区域间相对环境规制门槛模型的实证

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摘要首先借鉴Copeland-Taylor模型，引入相对环境规制强度变量，构建了产业转移影响环境污染的理论模型.在此基础上，利用我国2000~2016年30个省份的面板数据，采用门槛回归方法，以相对环境规制强度作为门槛变量，进行全样本、区域异质性和时期异质性回归分析，并以线性回归方法作为对比，最后进行稳健性检验.结果表明，高污染产业转移与环境污染之间呈现逐渐递增的非线性关系，随着相对环境规制强度由低门槛逐渐到高门槛，高污染产业转移所带来的环境污染问题也愈发严重；环境规制对环境污染的改善作用不大；我国不存在环境库兹涅兹曲线；资本存量、产业结构和能源消费的提升均会加剧环境污染；劳动力成本和质量的提高能够改善环境污染.

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关键词 ：高污染产业转移, 相对环境规制强度, 环境污染, 门槛效应

Abstract：First of all, this article learned from the Copeland-Taylor model and the variables of relative environmental regulation intensity were introduced, then the theoretical model of industrial transfer affecting environmental pollution was established. Based on the model, using the panel data of 30 provinces in China from 2000~2016, the method of the threshold regression was adopted and the full sample, the regional heterogeneity, and the period heterogeneity regression analyses were carried out, with the threshold variables of the relative environmental regulation intensity. Furthermore, the method of linear regression was used as a comparison. Finally, the robustness test was carried out and the results show that, firstly, there is a gradual increasing nonlinear relationship between the transfer of high-pollution industry and the environmental pollution. Particularly, as the relative environmental regulation intensity increases from the low threshold to the high threshold, the environmental pollution caused by the transfer of the high-pollution industry would be more serious. Secondly, it is found that environmental regulation has little effect on the improvement of environmental pollution. Thirdly, there is no Environmental Kuznets Curve in China. Moreover, the increase of the capital stock, the industrial structure, and energy consumption all could increase environmental pollution. At last but not least, the improvement of the quality and cost of labor could also improve the environmental pollution.

Key words： transfer of high-pollution industries relative environmental regulation intensity environmental pollution threshold effect

收稿日期: 2019-02-25

PACS:

X32

基金资助:国家社会科学基金资助重大项目（14ZDB144）；教育部人文社会科学青年基金资助项目（16YJC790083）

通讯作者: 葛力铭,硕士研究生,544905989@qq.com E-mail: 544905989@qq.com

作者简介: 秦炳涛(1976-),男,河北省沧州人,副教授,博士后,主要从事能源经济与环境可持续发展方面研究.发表论文30余篇.

引用本文:

秦炳涛, 葛力铭. 中国高污染产业转移与整体环境污染——基于区域间相对环境规制门槛模型的实证[J]. 中国环境科学, 2019, 39(8): 3572-3584. QIN Bing-tao, GE Li-ming. Whether the transfer of highly polluting industries in China aggravates environmental pollution-Empirical analysis based on the threshold model of relative environmental regulation strength. CHINA ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCECE, 2019, 39(8): 3572-3584.

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