PDF(1638 KB)
PDF(1638 KB)
PDF(1638 KB)
长江经济带农业废水面源污染与农业经济增长的脱钩关系
Decoupling relationship between agricultural wastewater non-point source pollution and agricultural economic growth in the Yangtze River Economic Belt
推进农业废水面源污染与农业经济增长的脱钩，是实现长江经济带农业经济高质量发展的迫切要求，因此，本文测算分析了2011~2016年长江经济带农业废水中氨氮、化学需氧量、总磷、总氮排放量与农业经济增长的脱钩关系及其演化趋势，结果表明：长江经济带农业废水面源污染总脱钩指数的变动幅度较小且小于0，但2015~2016年各污染源脱钩程度有所恶化；分省统计结果方面，四川农业废水中氨氮和化学需氧量排放脱钩为扩张性负脱钩，贵州、江苏、江西、上海、云南以及重庆化学需氧量排放为绝对脱钩，污染物排放绝对脱钩的省市主要位于长江经济带中游；农业废水面源污染的氨氮、化学需氧量排放的异质性空间边界溢出效应较明显，而总磷、总氮排放同质性溢出效应较明显；农业废水面源污染排放物的Moran’s I随距离升高，但随着空间边界地理距离的拉大，长江经济带农业废水面源污染的空间溢出效应脉冲式递减；氨氮、化学需氧量、总氮和总磷的排放对农业经济增长的长期影响呈U型趋势，影响效应贡献最大的为化学需氧量，其次为氨氮，总磷和总氮的影响较小，而总磷的影响持续为正.
It is an urgent requirement for achieving high-quality agricultural economic development to promote the decoupling of agricultural wastewater non-point source pollution from agricultural economic growth in the Yangtze River Economic Belt. The decoupling relationship and its evolution trend were analyzed between ammonia emissions, chemical oxygen demand, total phosphorus, and total nitrogen emissions from agricultural wastewater in the Yangtze River Economic Belt from 2011 to 2016. The results showed that: the total decoupling index of non-point source pollution was small and less than 0 in Yangtze River Economic Belt, but the decoupling degree of each pollution source has been deteriorated from 2015 to 2016. In terms of statistical results by province, the decoupling of ammonia emissions and chemical oxygen demand were expansion negative decoupling in agricultural wastewater in Sichuan. The chemical oxygen demand emissions were absolute decoupling in Guizhou, Jiangsu, Jiangxi, Shanghai, Yunnan, and Chongqing. The provinces and cities were mainly located in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River Economic Belt with absolute decoupling of pollutant emissions. There were obvious about heterogeneous spatial boundary spillover effects of Chemical Oxygen Demand, homogeneous spillover effects of total phosphorus and total nitrogen. Moran's I of non-point source pollution emissions from agricultural wastewater increases with distance, but as the geographic distance of the spatial boundary increases, the spatial spillover effect of agricultural wastewater non-point source pollution in the Yangtze River Economic Belt pulses decreases. The long-term impact of ammonia emissions, chemical oxygen demand, total phosphorus and total nitrogen were U-shaped trend on agricultural economic growth. Effects greatest contribution was the chemical oxygen demand, followed by ammonia emissions, total phosphorus and total nitrogen, and the continued positive impact of total phosphorus.
SVAR模型 / 长江经济带 / 面源污染 / 农业废水 / 脱钩指数
agricultural water / decoupling index / non-point source pollution / SVAR model / Yangtze River Economic Belt
[1] 杨建辉.农业化学投入与农业经济增长脱钩关系研究——基于华东6省1市数据[J].自然资源学报, 2017,32(9):1517-1527. Yang J H.Research on decoupling relationship between agricultural chemical inputs and agricultural economic growth: Based on the data of six provinces and one city in East China [J].Journal of Natural Resources.2017,32(9):1517-1527.
[2] Qi H, Altinakar M S.A conceptual framework of agricultural land use planning with BMP for integrated watershed management [J].Journal of Environmental Management.2011,92(1):149-155.
[3] Zhang P, Liu Y, Pan Y, et al.Land use pattern optimization based on CLUE-S and SWAT models for agricultural non-point source pollution control [J].Mathematical and Computer Modelling, 2013, 58(3/4):588-595.
[4] 李秀芬,朱金兆,顾晓君,等.农业面源污染现状与防治进展[J].中国人口·资源与环境, 2010,20(4):81-84. Li X F, Zhu J Z, Gu X J, et al.Current situation and control of agricultural non-point source polution [J].China Population, Resources and Environment, 2010,20(4):81-84.
[5] 向涛,綦勇.粮食安全与农业面源污染——以农地禀赋对化肥投入强度的影响为例[J].财经研究, 2015,41(7):132-144. Xiang T, Qi Y.Food security and agricultural non-point source pollution: Taking the impact of agricultural land endowments on fertilizer use intensity as an example [J].Journal of Finance and Economics, 2015,41(7):132-144.
[6] 卢少勇,张萍,潘成荣,等.洞庭湖农业面源污染排放特征及控制对策研究[J].中国环境科学, 2017,37(6):2278-2286. Lu S Y, Zhang P, Pan C R, et al.Agricultural non-point source pollution discharge characteristic and its control measures of Dongtinghu Lake [J].China Environmental Science, 2017,37(6):2278-2286.
[7] 欧阳威,鞠欣妍,高翔,等.考虑面源污染的农业开发流域生态安全评价研究[J].中国环境科学, 2018,38(3):1194-1200. Ouyang W, Ju X Y, Gao X, et al.Ecological security assessment of agricultural development watershed considering non-point source pollution [J].China Environmental Science, 2018,38(3):1194-1200.
[8] Baumgärtner S, Dyckhoff H, Faber M, et al.The concept of joint production and ecological economics [J].Ecological economics, 2001, 36(3):365-372.
[9] Carvalho F P.Agriculture, pesticides, food security and food safety [J].Environmental Science & Policy, 2006,9(7):685-692.
[10] Godfray H C J, Beddington J R, Crute I R, et al.Food security: the challenge of feeding 9billion people [J].science, 2010,327(5967): 812-818.
[11] Schreinemachers P, Tipraqsa P.Agricultural pesticides and land use intensification in high, middle and low income countries [J].Food Policy, 2012,37(6):616-626.
[12] 曾靖,常春华,王雅鹏.基于粮食安全的我国化肥投入研究[J].农业经济问题, 2010,31(5):66-70. Zeng J, Chang C H, Wang Y P.Research on China's fertilizer input based on food security [J].Issues in Agricultural Economy, 2010, 31(5):66-70.
[13] 饶静,纪晓婷.微观视角下的我国农业面源污染治理困境分析[J].农业技术经济, 2011,(12):11-16. Rao J, Ji X T.Analysis of the difficulties of agricultural non-point source pollution control in China from a micro perspective [J].Journal of Agrotechnical Economics, 2011,(12):11-16.
[14] 饶静,许翔宇,纪晓婷.我国农业面源污染现状、发生机制和对策研究[J].农业经济问题, 2011,32(8):81-87. Rao J, Xu X Y, Ji X T.Research on the present situation, occurrence mechanism and countermeasures of agricultural non-point source pollution in China [J].Issues in Agricultural Economy, 2011,32(8): 81-87.
[15] Krayl E, Leibfried R, Werner R.Impact of farmers' risk attitudes on farm income and environmental pollution by nitrogen fertilization.[J].Agrarwirtschaft, 1990,39(6):175-186.
[16] Plassmann F, Khanna N.Household income and pollution: Implications for the debate about the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis [J].The Journal of Environment & Development, 2006, 15(1):22-41.
[17] 徐承红,薛蕾.农业产业集聚与农业面源污染——基于空间异质性的视角[J].财经科学, 2019,(8):82-96. Xu C H, Xue L.Agricultural industry agglomeration and agricultural non-point source pollution—A perspective based on spatial heterogeneity [J].Finance & Economics, 2019,(8):82-96.
[18] Friedl B, Getzner M.Determinants of CO2 emissions in a small open economy [J].Ecological economics, 2003,45(1):133-148.
[19] Guo J H, Liu X J, Zhang Y, et al.Significant acidification in major Chinese croplands [J].science, 2010,327(5968):1008-1010.
[20] Antle J M, Heidebrink G.Environment and development: theory and international evidence [J].Economic Development and Cultural Change, 1995,43(3):603-625.
[21] Zhang T, Ni J, Xie D.Assessment of the relationship between rural non-point source pollution and economic development in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area [J].Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 2016,23(8):8125-8132.
[22] 于骥,蒲实,周灵.四川省农业面源污染与农业增长的实证分析[J].农村经济, 2016,(9):56-60. Yu Y, Pu S, Zhou L.Empirical analysis of agricultural non-point source pollution and agricultural growth in Sichuan Province [J].Rural Economy.2016,(9):56-60.
[23] 张晖,胡浩.农业面源污染的环境库兹涅茨曲线验证——基于江苏省时序数据的分析[J].中国农村经济, 2009,(4):48-53. Zhang H, Hu H.Validation of environmental Kuznets Curve of agricultural non-point source pollution: Analysis based on time series data of Jiangsu Province [J].Chinese Rural Economy, 2009,(4): 48-53.
[24] Hu W, Shao M, Han F, et al.Spatio-temporal variability behavior of land surface soil water content in shrub-and grass-land [J].Geoderma, 2011,162(3/4): 260-272.
[25] Hu W, Shao M A, Wan L, et al.Spatial variability of soil electrical conductivity in a small watershed on the Loess Plateau of China [J].Geoderma, 2014,230:212-220.
[26] Huang L, Wang H, Li Y, et al.Spatial distribution and risk assessment of phosphorus loss potential in urban–suburban soil of Lishui, China [J].Catena.2013,100:42-49.
[27] Villamizar M L, Brown C D.Modelling triazines in the valley of the River Cauca, Colombia, using the annualized agricultural non-point source pollution model [J].Agricultural Water Management, 2016,177: 24-36.
[28] Lu W, Zhou C, Wu J.Big social network influence maximization via recursively estimating influence spread [J].Knowledge-Based Systems, 2016,113:143-154.
[29] Zhang Y, Wu J, Zhou C, et al.Instance cloned extreme learning machine [J].Pattern Recognition, 2017,68:52-65.
[30] Zhang Z.Decoupling China’s carbon emissions increase from economic growth: An economic analysis and policy implications [J].World Development.2000,28(4):739-752.
[31] Chen J.Get Green or Get Out: Decoupling Environmental from Economic Objectives in Agricultural Regulation [J].Okla.L.Rev., 1995,48:333.
[32] Andreoni V, Galmarini S.Decoupling economic growth from carbon dioxide emissions: A decomposition analysis of Italian energy consumption [J].Energy, 2012,44(1):682-691.
[33] Shuai C, Chen X, Wu Y, et al.A three-step strategy for decoupling economic growth from carbon emission: empirical evidences from 133countries [J].Science of The Total Environment, 2019,646:524-543.
[34] Galko E, Jayet P A.Economic and environmental effects of decoupled agricultural support in the EU [J].Agricultural Economics, 2011,42(5): 605-618.
[35] Luo Y, Long X, Wu C, et al.Decoupling CO2 emissions from economic growth in agricultural sector across 30Chinese provinces from 1997 to 2014[J].Journal of Cleaner Production, 2017,159:220-228.
[36] Xiong C, Yang D, Huo J, et al.The Relationship between Agricultural Carbon Emissions and Agricultural Economic Growth and Policy Recommendations of a Low-carbon Agriculture Economy [J].Polish Journal of Environmental Studies, 2016,25(5):2187-2195.
[37] Peng J, Wen L, Fu L, et al.Total factor productivity of cultivated land use in China under environmental constraints: temporal and spatial variations and their influencing factors [J].Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 2020:1-20.Doi:10.1007/s11356-020-08264-8.
[38] 陆钟武,王鹤鸣,岳强.脱钩指数:资源消耗、废物排放与经济增长的定量表达[J].资源科学, 2011,33(1):2-9. Lu Z W, Wang H M, Yue Q.Decoupling indicators: Quantitative relationships between resource use, waste emission and economic growth [J].Resources Science, 2011,33(1):2-9.
[39] Guo W, Fu Y, Ruan B, et al.Agricultural non-point source pollution in the Yongding River Basin [J].Ecological Indicators, 2014,36:254-261.
[40] Wei O, Wei J, Li X, et al.Long-term agricultural non-point source pollution loading dynamics and correlation with outlet sediment geochemistry [J].Journal of Hydrology, 2016,540:379-385.
[41] Xin X, Wei Y, Li K.Estimation of non-point source pollution loads with flux method in Danjiangkou Reservoir area, China [J].Water Science and Engineering, 2017,10(2):134-142.
[42] 杨林章,吴永红.农业面源污染防控与水环境保护[J].中国科学院院刊, 2018,33(2):168-176. Yang L Z, Wu Y H.Prevention and control of agricultural non-point source pollution and aquatic environmental protection [J].Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences, 2018,33(2):168-176.
[43] Wang Y, Zhang Z.The economical efficiency of excrement energy engineering in breeding industry [J].Sustainable Dev., 2016,6(3): 223-230.
[44] Weili Z, Shuxia W, Hongjie J.Estimation of agricultural non-point source pollution in China and the alleviating strategies I.Estimation of agricultural non-point source pollution in China in early 21century [J].Scientia Agricultura Sinica, 2004,37(7):1008-1017.
[45] Zhou L, Rong X M, Xie G X, et al.Effects of different nitrogen fertilizers on rice yield and nitrogen use efficiency [J].Soils, 2014, 46(6):971-975.
[46] 彭甲超,易明,付丽娜.中国农业全要素生产率的再检验—基于省级面板数据农业中间消耗品的分析[J].中国管理科学, 2019.Doi:10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.1719. Peng J C, Yi M, Fu L N.Re-testing the total factor productivity of China's agriculture-Analysis of agricultural intermediate consumables based on provincial panel data [J].Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2019.Doi:10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.1719.
教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目（19YJA630103）；中共湖北省委改革智库湖北省生态文明研究中心开放基金项目（STZK2019Y10）；湖北省区域创新能力监测与分析软科学研究基地项目（HBQY2020Z06）
京公网安备 11010802030352号 /
| 〈 |
|
〉 |
