Abstract：This study considers the uncertainty of the external environment; constructs a stochastic game model, which consists of government, manufacturers, and logistics enterprises; discusses the stability of the model to obtain the steady-state conditions; and investigates the strategic evolution of the game subject with the numerical simulation method. The cost of regulation and the reverse check mechanism of the upper government are important factors affecting the strategy choice of the local government, and a higher carbon trading price will promote the evolution of the game system to the ideal set of strategies (active regulation, green production, green transportation), the change of the initial strategy selection probability in the ideal strategy set affects the evolution rate of the subject to some extent, even if the manufacturer's green production strategy selection probability at the beginning of the game is 0.1, it still converges to the green production stabilization strategy with the fastest evolution rate. The green production strategy of manufacturers under the linkage development will drive logistics enterprises to choose a green transportation strategy. The sensitivity of logistics enterprises to carbon trading price and carbon quota is greater than that of manufacturers, and the evolution rate of logistics enterprises to green transportation is negatively related to carbon quota and positively related to carbon trading price. The increase in fiscal revenue from carbon trading promotes positive regulatory behavior of local governments but may lead to unstable strategy choices of logistics firms when the fiscal revenue coefficient increases to 0.3. Along with the increase in the intensity of random disturbances, manufacturers maintain the highest stability, with fluctuations of 0.4667~1 and 0.5618~1 in scenarios 1 and 2, respectively, while the strategy choice of logistics companies is the most volatile, with fluctuations of 0.3856~1 and 0.4616~1 in scenarios 1and 2, respectively, and is in an unstable state for a long time at the beginning of the evolution.
徐新扬, 杨扬. 碳交易政策下的物流与制造业联动减排随机演化博弈[J]. 中国环境科学, 2022, 42(10): 4860-4870.
XU Xin-yang, YANG Yang. A stochastic evolutionary game of logistics and manufacturing linkage emission reduction under carbon trading policy. CHINA ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCECE, 2022, 42(10): 4860-4870.
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