碳交易政策对工业碳生产率的影响及传导机制

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摘要以2005~2017年30个省市面板数据为研究样本，采用双重差分、动态效应检验和三重差分等方法，考察了碳交易政策对工业碳生产率的影响效果及异质性，同时利用多重中介效应模型，解析碳交易对工业碳生产率的实现机制.结果表明，碳交易政策显著提升了工业碳生产率，实现了"降碳促经"效果，且该效果保持逐年上升趋势；异质性检验表明，各试点地区对政策的响应程度存在一定差异，北京、天津、上海、湖北工业碳生产率的提升效果较为显著，而广东、重庆未能对政策做出充分响应；机制分析发现，碳交易政策能够有效激励环境治理效应、结构优化效应和技术革新效应，进而影响工业碳生产率提升，其中结构优化效应是响应政策最为充分的机制.本文研究结果可为中国未来碳市场运行提供一定参考.

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	任晓松
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关键词 ：碳交易政策, 工业碳生产率, 双重差分模型, 多重中介效应模型, 碳达峰碳中和

Abstract：Based on panel data of 30 provinces from 2005 to 2017, this paper evaluated the heterogeneous impacts of carbon trading policies on industrial carbon productivity using the methods of differences-in-differences, dynamic effect analysis, and triple difference. Meanwhile, this paper adopted the multiple mediating effect model to explore the impact mechanism of carbon trading polices on industrial carbon productivity. The results show that impacted by the carbon trading policies, the carbon productivity increased by 29.2% in pilot regions when compared with non-pilot regions. The heterogeneity test shows the carbon trading polices had significant impacts on the carbon productivity in Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai, and Hubei, while they had small impact on the carbon productivity in Guangdong and Chongqing. The mechanism analysis shows that carbon trading policies can effectively improve carbon productivity by exerting the mediating effects of environmental governance, structural optimization and technological innovation, and the mediating effect of structural optimization effect is the largest. These findings will provide policy implications for the development of China's carbon market in the future.

Key words： carbon trading policy industrial carbon productivity the difference-in-difference model multiple mediation effects model carbon peak and carbon neutrality

收稿日期: 2021-03-23

PACS:

X196

基金资助:国家自然科学基金资助项目（71774105）；教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金资助项目（18YJCZH143）；山西省高校哲学社会科学研究项目（2021W055）

通讯作者: 马茜,博士,renxs@sxufe.edu.cn E-mail: renxs@sxufe.edu.cn

作者简介: 任晓松(1986-),男,山西运城人,副教授,博士,主要从事低碳经济与能源政策研究.发表论文10余篇.

引用本文:

任晓松, 马茜, 刘宇佳, 赵国浩. 碳交易政策对工业碳生产率的影响及传导机制[J]. 中国环境科学, 2021, 41(11): 5427-5437. REN Xiao-song, MA Qian, LIU Yu-jia, ZHAO Guo-hao. The impact of carbon trading policy on industrial carbon productivity and its transmission mechanism. CHINA ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCECE, 2021, 41(11): 5427-5437.

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http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/CN/ 或 http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/CN/Y2021/V41/I11/5427

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