Impact assessment of power system transition on industrial sectors under dual carbon targets——Take the Greater Bay Area as an example
XU Hong-wei1,2,3, WANG Peng1, REN Song-yan1, LIN Ze-wei1, ZHANG Cong1, ZHAO Dai-qing1
1. Key laboratory of Renewable Energy, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of New and Renewable Energy Research and Development, Guangzhou Institute of Energy Conversion, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Guangzhou 510640, China; 2. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China; 3. Guangdong Academy of Environmental Sciences, Guangzhou 510045, China
Abstract:This paper develops an empirical assessment of low-carbon electricity transition in China, with specific emphasis on identifying its impact on the industrial sectors associated with three alternative scenarios-baseline, carbon neutrality (CN) and enhanced carbon neutrality (ECN). The case in point for this assessment is provided by Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area (thereafter, the Greater Bay Area). The analytical framework for this assessment is based on a dynamic CGE model. The results suggest that attaining net-zero electricity by 2045 (CN scenario) is likely to reduce energy consumption and CO2 emissions by 8.9% and 67%, respectively, for the Greater Bay Area when compared with the baseline scenario. This impact would worsen the region’s reliance on electricity imports, adversely affecting its economic growth (3.9% less than the baseline scenario). This economic impact would, however, vary significantly across industrial sectors, reflecting their difference in terms of electric energy substitution, carbon emission reduction contribution and value-added flexibility. The impact on high electricity-dependent sectors is likely to be small (losses of about 79billion yuan in sectoral value-added), when compared with those sectors that are less dependent on electricity (losses of 100billion to 320billion yuan in sectoral value-added). By implication, this suggests that policymakers should consider promoting electrification and fuel-switching in these sectors, in order to reduce the adverse impact of electricity decarbonisation on their future growth. The electricity sector in the Greater Bay Area will attain net-zero emissions by 2040 in the ECN scenario. The strong growth of local renewable generation in this scenario could help reduce the region’s reliance on electricity imports (11% less than the CN scenario), contributing to energy security and socio-economic development (1.5% higher than the CN scenario). This development would particularly benefit industrial sectors that are highly dependent on electricity and promote electrification in other sectors
许鸿伟, 汪鹏, 任松彦, 林泽伟, 张聪, 赵黛青. 双碳目标下电力系统转型对产业部门影响评估——以粤港澳大湾区为例[J]. 中国环境科学, 2022, 42(3): 1435-1445.
XU Hong-wei, WANG Peng, REN Song-yan, LIN Ze-wei, ZHANG Cong, ZHAO Dai-qing. Impact assessment of power system transition on industrial sectors under dual carbon targets——Take the Greater Bay Area as an example. CHINA ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCECE, 2022, 42(3): 1435-1445.
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