为实现双碳目标，公路货运部门需要通过发展电动汽车和氢能汽车替代燃油汽车进行减排.因此，本文构建了考虑场景异质性的货运车辆生命周期净收益分析模型，对比了25t牵引车和18t栏式货车两类车队中油、电、氢三种车型在不同线路场景下的生命周期成本和收入.结果表明，氢能汽车更适用于高单价、寒冷气候的长途重型货运场景，而电动货运车型则更适用于低单价、短途、轻载、温暖气候场景，至2030年氢能汽车可在25t重型货运场景优于电动汽车，可作为氢能汽车的重点布局方向. 中短期内，氢价补贴、碳税等政策无法实现货运部门新能源汽车对燃油汽车的自发替代，还需要额外政策支持.
Abstract
To achieve the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals, China's road freight sector needs to reduce emissions by developing electric and hydrogen vehicles to replace traditional fuel vehicles. In this paper, a life-cycle benefit analysis model of freight vehicles considering scenario heterogeneity was constructed to compare the life-cycle costs and revenues of oil, electric and hydrogen vehicles under different route scenarios, taking 25t tractors and 18t railcars as examples. The results showed that hydrogen vehicles were more suitable for long-distance heavy freight scenarios with high shipping prices and cold climates, while electric freight models were more suitable for low shipping prices, short-distance, light-load, and warm climate scenarios. Moreover, hydrogen vehicles can outperform electric vehicles in 25-ton heavy freight scenarios by 2030, which can be the key layout direction for hydrogen vehicles. In the short and medium term, policies such as hydrogen price subsidies and carbon taxes cannot achieve spontaneous substitution of new energy vehicles for fuel vehicles in the freight sector, and additional policy support will be needed.
关键词
场景模拟 /
电动汽车 /
公路货运 /
氢能汽车 /
全生命周期
Key words
electric vehicles /
hydrogen vehicles /
life cycle assessment /
road freight /
scenario simulation
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基金
中国氢能联盟2022政研项目（CHA2022RP004）；国家自然科学基金资助项目（72104021，72204085）
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