本文采用地球系统模式,以未来碳中和排放清单和平流层示踪物O3S为基础,揭示了未来对流层O3及其前体物的变化特征及成因.研究结果表明:碳中和排放情景下,特别在冬春季节,全球范围内的NOx人为排放和飞机排放量均显著降低,这使得近地面NOx浓度随之降低.NOx作为对流层O3的重要前体物之一,其浓度的剧烈减少使得近地层O3浓度显著降低,但在中国东部地区,由于NO对O3滴定作用的减弱,最终使得冬季近地面O3呈现增加趋势;垂直方向上O3浓度减少最为显著的区域集中在对流层顶附近,减少量达26×10-9以上,且夏季最为显著,这主要与飞机排放减少导致的平流层O3浓度降低有关.碳中和排放情景下平流层入侵对全球近地面O3的平均贡献减少量在冬季最高,为1.7×10-9,夏季最低,为0.9×10-9;北半球平流层入侵贡献减少量最显著区域集中在高纬地区,达4×10-9.垂直方向上,平流层入侵贡献减少量随高度增加,在对流层上层,平流层的贡献量降低高达24×10-9以上,且冬季最强.总之,碳中和排放情景下地表人为排放及飞机排放的改变对全球O3污染有很好的减轻作用,平流层贡献量的降低对未来O3浓度的变化也有重要贡献.
Abstract
Based on the Community Earth System Model (CESM2), future emission scenarios, and the stratospheric ozone tracer "O3S", this study reveals the changes of tropospheric O3 and its precursors, and the impact of stratospheric intrusion on tropospheric O3 under a carbon neutral scenario. The results show that, surface anthropogenic and aircraft emissions of NOx were significantly reduced under a carbon neutral scenario, especially during the winter and spring seasons, which lead to a significant decrease in surface NOx concentrations. Along with the reduction of O3 precursors, global surface O3 concentration was also decreasing, except in Eastern China, where the titration of O3 by NO was weakened. In the vertical, the most substantial decrease of O3 concentration was concentrated around the tropopause, with a reduction of more than 26×10-9, especially in summer. The decrease of stratospheric O3 concentration caused by reduced aircraft emissions also contributed to the reduction in tropospheric O3. Under a carbon neutral scenario, the decrease of stratospheric invasion to surface O3 was the highest in winter with reduced values of 1.7×10-9, and the lowest in summer with reduced values of 0.9×10-9. In the northern hemisphere, the most substantial decrease was located at high latitudes with values of more than 4×10-9. In the vertical, the decrease of stratospheric contributions to tropospheric O3 increased with altitude, with high values of more than 24×10-9 in the free troposphere during winter. Therefore, the decreases in surface anthropogenic and aircraft emissions under the carbon neutral scenario will benefit the improvement of global ozone pollution, and the decrease of stratospheric contribution also had an important contribution to the future change of ozone concentration.
关键词
CESM2 /
对流层臭氧 /
平流层贡献 /
人为排放 /
碳中和排放情景
Key words
anthropogenic emissions /
carbon neutrality emission scenarios /
CESM2 /
stratospheric contribution /
tropospheric ozone
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基金
国家重点研发计划资助项目(2022YFC3701204);中国气象局大气化学重点开放实验室开放课题资助项目(2023B05)
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