中国钢铁行业CO<sub>2</sub>排放特征和减排路径研究——基于ARIMA-LEAP模型

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摘要为了消除对于未来粗钢、钢材以及生铁产量预测主观性,基于时间序列中的ARIMA模型,对未来相关产量进行客观预测,构建了中国钢铁行业ARIMA-LEAP模型,并以2020年为基准年,每5a为时间节点,研究了2020~2030年中国钢铁行业不同情景下全流程及各工序的CO₂排放情况.在技术进步中考虑了氢还原炼铁技术,在能源结构调整中考虑了发电方式调整,在此基础上分别设置了4种单一情景和4种组合情景来研究其减排潜力.结果表明,4种组合情景下的含有规模减排的3种组合情景CO₂减排潜力均高于单一情景.其中SUR+TER、SUR+STR和综合减排情景可以在2030年实现达峰,达峰年均为2021年,达峰时CO₂排放量分别为13.225亿t、13.359亿t和13.289亿t.单一情景中相较于基准情景CO₂减排量由高到低依次为:规模减排情景(SUR)、结构减排情景(STR)、技术减排情景(TAR),在2030年相对于基准情景的减排量分别为493.1Mt、247.8Mt以及105.1Mt.借助LEAP模型的能源核算以及CO₂排放核算功能,研究了综合减排情景下2020~2030年不同工序,不同能源的CO₂排量,其中CO₂排放较多的3个工序为炼铁、轧钢以及烧结工序,产生CO₂较多的4种能源为洗精煤、喷煤粉、电力以及焦炭,其中洗精煤CO₂排放量更是达到10Bt级,而其余3种能源也达到Bt级.确定了中国钢铁行业CO₂排放特征.对技术减排以及结构减排成本进行简单比较,制定中国钢铁行业CO₂减排路径.

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关键词 ： LEAP模型, 钢铁行业, CO₂, 排放特征, 减排路径, 情景分析

Abstract：To have removed any subjective bias in forecasting future production levels of crude steel, steel, and pig iron, the past study employed the ARIMA model in time series analysis to provide an objective outlook on production volumes. Specifically, it had developed the ARIMA-LEAP model tailored for the Chinese steel industry, using 2020 as the benchmark year and examining production estimates at 5-year intervals from 2020 to 2030. The research delved into the CO₂ emissions throughout the entire steel production process, considering various scenarios.By incorporating advancements such as hydrogen reduction ironmaking technology and adapting energy structures, including shifts in electricity generation methods, the study had established four individual scenarios and four combined scenarios, which were then evaluated for their potential impact on emission reductions. The results showed that the CO₂ emission reduction potential of the four combined scenarios with scale emission reduction had been higher than that of the single scenario.Among them, SUR+TER, SUR+STR and comprehensive emission reduction scenarios can be reached in 2030, and the peak years are all 2021, and the CO₂ emissions at the peak time are 1322.5Mt, 1335.9Mt and 1328.9Mt, respectively. In comparison to the baseline scenario, the CO₂ emission reduction in a single scenario, from the highest to the lowest, was as follows: In 2030, the emission reductions in the scale (SUR), structural (STR), and technical (TAR) scenarios, relative to the base scenario, were found to be 493.1Mt, 247.8Mt, and 105.1Mt, respectively. Utilizing the LEAP model's energy accounting and CO₂ emission accounting functions, the CO₂ emissions of different processes and different energy sources from 2020 to 2030 under the comprehensive emission reduction scenario were studied. Among them, the three processes with the highest CO₂ emissions were the iron making, steel rolling, and sintering processes, while the four energy sources with the highest CO₂ emissions were washed coal, pulverized coal injection, electric power, and coke. Notably, the CO₂ emission of washed coal reached the 10Bt level, while the other three energy sources also reached the Bt level. This study had identified the CO₂ emissions characteristics of the Chinese steel industry and conducted a simple comparison of the costs for technical emission reduction and structural emission reduction, subsequently formulating a path for CO₂ emission reduction in the Chinese steel industry.

Key words： LEAP model steel industry CO₂ emission characteristics emission reduction path scenario analysis

收稿日期: 2023-11-04

PACS:

X511

基金资助:国家重点研发计划项目“一带一路沿线典型重污染行业清洁生产技术比较与应用联合研究”(2020YFE0201400)

通讯作者: 王寿兵,教授,bswang@fudan.edu.cn E-mail: bswang@fudan.edu.cn

作者简介: 陈浩(1993-),男,山东蓬莱人,复旦大学硕士研究生,主要从事产业生态方向研究.发表论文3篇.20210740099@fudan.edu.cn.

引用本文:

陈浩, 胡静茹, 王寿兵, 张挺峰, 方锴. 中国钢铁行业CO₂排放特征和减排路径研究——基于ARIMA-LEAP模型[J]. 中国环境科学, 2024, 44(6): 3531-3543. CHEN Hao, HU Jing-ru, WANG Shou-bing, ZHANG Ting-feng, FANG Kai. Research on carbon dioxide emission characteristics and emission reduction path of China's iron and steel industry based on ARIMA-LEAP model. CHINA ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCECE, 2024, 44(6): 3531-3543.

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http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/CN/ 或 http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/CN/Y2024/V44/I6/3531

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