林地保护政策驱动的城市碳库时空演变规律——以广东江门为例

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摘要为探究双碳政策实施对林地碳库演变影响的规律,选取粤港澳大湾区的生态屏障——江门市作为案例,基于2000~2020年5期土地覆盖及碳密度数据,使用InVEST模型定量评估研究区的碳储量,并结合政策一致性评价(PMC)指数模型及最小绝对收缩和选择算子(Lasso)回归模型,分析林业政策的质量及其对碳储量的驱动因素.结果表明:江门市林地和耕地主导了碳储量的变化,2000~2015年,大量林地和耕地转变为建设用地,碳储量由34.22×10⁶t下降到33.59×10⁶t (林地贡献率72.8%),占同期大湾区碳储量下降的14.35%;2015年后由于森林城市建设等补贴型政策的实施,2015~2020年江门市内碳储量增加的区域面积超过了碳储量减少的区域面积,碳储量提升了0.5%,且激励保障变量被识别为驱动碳储量增加的核心因素.空间变化方面,江门市的碳储量增加与降低区域呈聚类分布,响应了“森林围城,树林进城”政策的实施.本研究根据碳储量密度和建筑密度的联合空间分布特征,提出生态保育区的森林保护、自然荒野区的碳汇规划、中心旧城区的空间改造和新型建成区的园林建设等基于功能分区的碳汇提升建议,为制定城市可持续发展政策方案提供理论支撑和案例参考.

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	林海庆
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关键词 ：碳储量, 时空变异, 政策驱动, 江门市, InVEST模型

Abstract：To explore the patterns of forest carbon storage evolution influenced by the implementation of dual-carbon policies, This study selects Jiangmen City, a key ecological barrier in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, as a case study. Using land cover and carbon density data from five periods between 2000 and 2020, the study employs the InVEST model to quantitatively assess the area's carbon storage, in conjunction with the Policy Modeling Consistency (PMC) index model and the Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (Lasso) regression model to analyze the quality of forestry policies and their impact on carbon storage. The results indicate that forest and agricultural lands were the principal contributors to carbon storage changes in Jiangmen City. From 2000 to 2015, these lands was significantly converted to built-up areas, causing carbon storage to decrease from 34.22×10⁶t to 33.59×10⁶t, accounting for 72.8% of the decrease in the Greater Bay Area's carbon storage during the same period, which represented a 14.35% reduction. After 2015, the implementation of subsidy policies related to forest city development resulted in an increase in the area of carbon storage exceeding areas of loss from 2015 to 2020, with a net increase of 0.5% in carbon storage. The “incentive safeguard” variable was identified as a principal factor in this increase. Spatially, the areas of increased and decreased carbon storage in Jiangmen City exhibited clustered distributions, reflecting the “forest surrounding cities and trees entering cities” policy. Based on the joint spatial distribution characteristics of carbon storage density and building density, the study proposes carbon sequestration enhancement strategies for different functional zones, including forest protection in ecological conservation areas, carbon planning in wilderness areas, spatial transformation in central old urban areas, and garden construction in newly developed urban areas. These recommendations provide theoretical support and practical examples for formulating sustainable urban development policies.

Key words： carbon storage spatio-temporal variation policy driven Jiangmen City InVEST model

收稿日期: 2024-08-27

PACS:

X32

基金资助:国家重点研发计划(2022YFF1301203);广东省海洋经济发展(海洋六大产业)专项(GDNRC[2023]45);“十四五”广东省农业科技创新九大主攻方向“揭榜挂帅”项目(2023SDZG09)

作者简介: 林海庆(1998-),男,广东揭阳人,五邑大学硕士研究生,研究方向为区域碳汇模拟.linhaiqing@gdim.cn.

引用本文:

林海庆, 杨旭楠, 黄心怡, 张义栋, 汪涛, 许玫英. 林地保护政策驱动的城市碳库时空演变规律——以广东江门为例[J]. 中国环境科学, 2025, 45(4): 2135-2146. LIN Hai-qing, YANG Xu-nan, HUANG Xin-yi, ZHANG Yi-dong, WANG Tao, XU Mei-ying. Spatio-temporal evolution roles of urban carbon pool driven by forest policies—Jiangmen City (Guangdong, China) as an example. CHINA ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCECE, 2025, 45(4): 2135-2146.

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http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/CN/ 或 http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/CN/Y2025/V45/I4/2135

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