Abstract：Based on the land use data of Siping City from 1990 to 2020, the Geo-FLUS model was employed to simulate the spatial patterns of land use for 2030 across three different scenarios:natural development, cultivated land protection and ecological priority. Additionally, the InVEST model was coupled to quantitively analyze the spatial and temporal variation of carbon storage from 1990 to 2020, as well the impact of land use change on carbon storage under different scenarios. The results showed that:(1) From 1990 to 2020, cultivated land and forest land in Siping City decreased by 951.55km2 and 357.54km2, respectively, with the sharpest decline between 1990 to 2000. Conversely, the grassland and built-up land use exhilited an increasing trend, expanding by 702.97km2 and 587.64km2, respectively. Under the ecological priority scenario in 2030, the forest land use was projected to expand, while the cultivated land would gradually increase. Cultivated land protection scenario ensured cultivated land availability but led to reductions in forest land and grassland. Built-up land use expanded across all three scenarios, most notably under natural development scenario. (2) Ecosystem carbon storage and average density in Siping City showed a continuous decline tendency from 1990 to 2020, with the steepest drop between 1990 and 2000. This decline was mainly due to decreased cultivated land and increased built-up land during that period. (3) Higher carbon storage value were observed in the eastern Yitong Manchu Automous and Tiedong area, characterized by forest land. Total carbon storage expressed a declining trend over the study period, decreasing greatly by about 0.703×107tons between 1990 and 2000. (4) Carbon storage and average carbon density in 2030 exhibited distinct trends across the three different scenarios. Ecological priority scenario led to an effective increase in both metrics for terrestrial ecosystem. Conversely natural development and cultivated land protection scenario yields declines, though the reduction under the cultivated land protection scenario was significantly lower than that under natural development scenario. Therefore, prioritizing ecological priority scenario in future land resource planning can ensure cultivated land resources, optimize land use structure, cultivated land quality, and amplify ecosystem carbon sequestration.
邹桃红, 陈鹏, 刘家福, 杜会石. 不同土地利用情景下四平市生态系统碳储量时空演变[J]. 中国环境科学, 2023, 43(10): 5508-5518.
ZOU Tao-hong, CHEN Peng, LIU Jia-fu, DU Hui-shi. Spatio-temporal dynamics of territorial ecosystem carbon storage under different land use scenarios in Siping City. CHINA ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCECE, 2023, 43(10): 5508-5518.
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