Uncertainty analysis of non-point source pollution simulation based on surrogate model-case study for Shitoukoumen Reservoir Catchment Basin
YAN Xue-man1,2, LU Wen-xi1,2, OUYANG Qi1,2
1. Key Laboratory of Groundwater Resources and Environment, Ministry of Education, Jilin University, Changchun 130021, China;
2. College of Environment and Resources, Jilin University, Changchun 130021, China
Shitoukoumen Reservoir Catchment Basin was selected as a study area to analyze the influence of the model parameters uncertainty on the simulation results of non-point source pollution. A non-point source pollution simulation model was established by SWAT combining Monte Carlo methods, which was applied to analyze the uncertainty of the parameters of non-point source pollution mechanism model. However, it is time consuming if SWAT model is called directly during the model running process. Therefore, a surrogate model was established to replace SWAT model by Kriging method. The results showed that the surrogate model could not only reduce the computation load, but also demonstrate an ideal accuracy. It was found that the output of ammonia nitrogen (NH3-N) and total phosphorus (TP) ranged from 0.98×103 to 1.67×103t/a and from 0.29×103 to 0.84×103t/a at a confidence level of 90%, and the output of NH3-N showed the greater uncertainty compared with that of TP.
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YAN Xue-man, LU Wen-xi, OUYANG Qi. Uncertainty analysis of non-point source pollution simulation based on surrogate model-case study for Shitoukoumen Reservoir Catchment Basin. CHINA ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCECE, 2017, 37(8): 3011-3018.
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