Response of the warming hiatus to changing influences over the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region
SUN Bo-lin1, MA Long1, FENG Qi2, LIU Ting-xi1, LIANG Long-teng1, LI Hong-yu1, ZHOU Ying1, LIU Yang1
1. College of Water Conservancy and Civil Engineering College, Inner Mongolia Agricultural University, Hohhot 010018, China;
2. Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000
Focusing on the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, we conducted a comprehensive, qualitative and quantitative analysis on characteristics of the hiatus in temperature increase across the study area, as well as the responses of the hiatus to changes in influencing factors. Several statistical methods, such as the central cluster method and the M-K detection method, were applied in our investigation to the global large-scale spatial data sets (e.g., Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI)), and regional meteorological records (including average minimum temperature, average temperature, average maximum temperature, wind speed and atmospheric pressure) from 1951 to 2016 from 70 different weather stations. The results indicated that, for all sub-regions of the study area, abrupt changes in three temperature measurements occurred from 1981 to 1993, followed by a warming hiatus from 1998 to 2008. The degrees of correlation between the temperature and its influencing factors were different for different temperature measures, which also varied by sub-region. For example, the average minimum temperature had the strongest correlation with AMO, PDO, MEI, and total solar radiation. The correlation weakened the average temperature, and was the weakest for the average highest temperature. The temperature in the western sub-region was closely related to AMO, PDO, MEI and total solar radiation, whereas the temperature in the middle sub-region was closely related to AMO and wind speed. As a whole, from the 1990s to the 2000s, a time period that was characterized by a weak increasing trend in AMO and a decreasing trend in positive PDO or negative PDO phases, both MEI and total solar radiation showed descending tendencies. At this time, after a long-term increasing/decreasing trend in wind speed, atmospheric pressure and relative humidity, there was a hiatus in the increase in sub-regional temperature. For example, when the increasing trend in AMO slowed, wind speed declined continuously for 8~13a until its slope reached -0.26 to -0.11m/(s·10a), and the increase in average temperature showed a hiatus. Among the three temperatures, the average minimum temperature was most sensitive to changes in the three influencing factors, and the average temperature had a weaker sensitivity. The warming hiatus was a compound result of various factors. This study supplemented the research regarding the mechanisms behind the warming hiatus and provided referencing values for climate change and disaster prevention.
孙柏林, 马龙, 冯起, 刘廷玺, 梁珑腾, 李虹雨, 周莹, 柳杨. 内蒙古气温变暖停滞对其影响因子变化的响应[J]. 中国环境科学, 2019, 39(5): 2131-2142.
SUN Bo-lin, MA Long, FENG Qi, LIU Ting-xi, LIANG Long-teng, LI Hong-yu, ZHOU Ying, LIU Yang. Response of the warming hiatus to changing influences over the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region. CHINA ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCECE, 2019, 39(5): 2131-2142.
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