AQI prediction of CEEMD-Elman neural network based on data decomposition
WU Man-man1,2, XU Jian-xin2,3, WANG Qin1
Quality Development Institute, Kunming University of Science and Technology, Kunming 650093, China; 2. State Key Laboratory of Complex Nonferrous Metal Resources Clean Utilization, Kunming 650093, China; 3. Faculty of Metallurgical and Energy Engineering, Kunming University of Science and Technology, Kunming 650093, China
Abstract：Elman neural network (ENN) is susceptible to the non-stationary of data when it is used to predict the Air Quality Index (AQI), resulting in a good forecasting trend but low accuracy. Based on complementary ensemble empirical modal decomposition (CEEMD), a new hybrid model related to ENN was proposed in this paper. Firstly, CEEMD was employed to decompose the AQI sequence into a finite number of intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) at different time scales and one residue. Secondly, partial autocorrelation function was used to calculate the lag periods of the input variables of each IMF in ENN. Finally, the predicted values of each IMF were summed up to obtain the final predicted result. The study of the AQI without stationarity sequence was then transformed into the study of steady IMFs. The experimental results show that the mean square error, the mean absolute error, and the mean absolute percent error were respectively 4.80, 0.71, and 1.84% which were all less than those of the single Elman network, EMD-Elman model, BP network and CEEMD-BP model. Furthermore, the frequency of the correct forecast for the corresponding air quality grade was 94.12%. It has been concluded that the new model could reduce the volatility impact of real AQI data and effectively predict the air quality grade. This study not only provides an effective evidence to further predict the trend of AQI, but provides a better reference for government decision-making and pollution control formulation of management departments.
吴曼曼, 徐建新, 王钦. 基于数据分解的AQI的CEEMD-Elman神经网络预测研究[J]. 中国环境科学, 2019, 39(11): 4580-4588.
WU Man-man, XU Jian-xin, WANG Qin. AQI prediction of CEEMD-Elman neural network based on data decomposition. CHINA ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCECE, 2019, 39(11): 4580-4588.
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