1. School of geography science and Tourism, Xinjiang Normal University, Urumqi 830054, China; 2. Xinjiang Key Laboratory of Environment and Resources for Aid Region, Urumqi 830054, China; 3. Center of Silk Road Economic Belt Urbanization Development Study, Xinjiang Normal University, Urumqi 830054, China
Abstract：In order to effectively assess carbon stock changes in urban agglomerations, the PLUS model and the InVEST model were used in this study to dynamically assess land use changes and carbon stock changes under different scenarios from 2000 to 2020 and in 2030 in the urban agglomeration on the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains. The results revealed that the carbon stock of the urban agglomeration on the northern slope of Tianshan Mountains showed a continuous increasing trend from 2000 to 2020, which was closely related to the land use change. Specifically, the decrease in forest land area from 2000 to 2010 led to a decrease in carbon stock by about 266×106t, and the increase of grassland area from 2010 to 2020 gave rise to an increase in carbon stock by about 69.14×106t. In 2030, the carbon stocks under scenarios of natural development, ecological protection and rapid economic development were 8875.88×106t, 8895.58×106t and 8841.58×106t respectively, with the lowest carbon storage under rapid economic development scenario and the highest carbon storage under ecological protection scenario. Land use was the first dominant factor influencing the distribution of spatial changes in carbon stocks, with a contribution rate close to 90%, which was further verified by the analysis of the coordination between land use intensity and carbon stocks and the bivariate spatial autocorrelation between the two. To a certain extent, land use changes could exert a positive impact on carbon stocks. For the area in this study, the ecological conservation development scenario might be more in line with the future urban development pattern. As a result, the results of the study could provide some scientific reference for land use planning.
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