Abstract：The spatiotemporal dynamics of column-averaged CO2 dry air mole fractions, as captured by OCO-2 satellite XCO2 data, were meticulously examined across China from 2015 to 2021. This investigation harnessed the synergistic capabilities of spatiotemporal kriging methodologies and advanced XCO2 anomaly computation techniques. Additionally, the quantitative influence of socioeconomic determinants on XCO2 anomalies was elucidated through the application of the random forest algorithm. The findings revealed a discernible cyclical temporal pattern in XCO2 anomalies over the study period, with pronounced seasonal maxima during the winter months. Geographically, the anomalies exhibited a gradient distribution, with elevated concentrations in the eastern and southern regions, juxtaposed against lower levels in the western and northern territories. The spatial configuration of XCO2 anomalies derived from OCO-2 satellite observations was found to be largely congruent with anthropogenic emission inventories. Notably, at broader spatial scales and in regions characterized by higher emission intensities, XCO2 anomalies more effectively encapsulated the spatial distribution attributes of anthropogenic carbon emissions. At the provincial level, variables including GDP, local fiscal expenditure, population density, and vehicle ownership exhibited a significant positive correlation with XCO2 anomalies. Among these, GDP demonstrated the most pronounced association, with correlation and contribution ratios of 0.56 and 0.46, respectively. Furthermore, energy intensity, industrial composition, and energy consumption profiles were identified as consequential determinants contributing to XCO2 anomalies. These research outcomes substantiate the viability of leveraging satellite remote sensing to monitor spatiotemporal fluctuations in anthropogenic carbon emissions and to dissect their underlying drivers across China. This approach is anticipated to furnish critical insights for ecological conservation, environmental stewardship, and the formulation of informed strategies for carbon mitigation initiatives.
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