Abstract：Using the inventory model, this study evaluated the tempo-spatial characteristics of methane emissions from rice cultivation at the county level and their emission intensity per unit of rice production over the period 1980~2060. A comparison of mitigation potentials was also conducted between the baseline (BAU) scenario, the conventional technical potential (TP) scenario, and the maximum technical potential (MTP) scenario. The results showed that China's rice cultivation methane emissions decreased and then increased from 1980 to 2020, and that they decreased by 19% in 2020 compared to 1980. Over the same period, the intensity of emissions declined by 46%. Under the TP and MTP scenarios, methane emissions are reduced by 26% and 70%, respectively, while emission intensity is reduced by 26% and 68%, respectively. Rice cultivation methane emissions and their intensity have shifted to the east during the period 1980~2020, with the emission gravity center moving to the northeast by 347km and the intensity gravity center moving to the southeast by 411km during this period. Both emissions and intensities decreased in counties in the southern regions, such as Hunan, Hubei, and Jiangxi. Rice cultivation is gradually being replaced in high-intensity regions such as Xinjiang, Shandong, and Henan, which is resulting in declining emissions. Although emissions in northeastern regions have increased, their intensity levels remain relatively low. Water management for rice has the greatest mitigation potential, contributing more than 60% of the total mitigation potential. There is a high mitigation potential in regions with high emissions, such as Hunan, Hubei, Jiangxi, Heilongjiang, and Guangdong, where the average mitigation potential is twice that of other regions.
[1] Fletcher S E M, Schaefer H. Rising methane:A new climate challenge[J]. Science, 2019,364(6444):932-933. [2] IPCC. Special report on global warming of 1.5℃[EB/OL].(2018)[2024-10-02] . https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/. [3] Staniaszek Z, Griffiths P T, Folberth G A, et al. The role of future anthropogenic methane emissions in air quality and climate[J]. npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, 2022,5(1):1-8. [4] Jiang J, Yin D, Sun Z, et al. Global trend of methane abatement inventions and widening mismatch with methane emissions[J]. Nature Climate Change, 2024,14(4):393-401. [5] Zhang W, Sun W, Li T. Uncertainties in the national inventory of methane emissions from rice cultivation:field measurements and modeling approaches[J]. Biogeosciences, 2017,14(1):163-176. [6] Masson-Delmotte V, Zhai P, Pirani A, et al. Climate change 2021:The physical science basis[M]//Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. New York:Cambridge University Press, 2021:21-18. [7] FAOSTAT. Crop Production, Yield, Harvested Area[EB/OL].(2022)[2024-10-02] . https://data.apps.fao.org/catalog/dataset/crop-production-yield-harvested-area-global-national-annual-faostat. [8] 中国生态环境部.中华人民共和国气候变化初始国家信息通报[EB/OL].(2015-11-20)[2024-10-02] . https://tnc.ccchina.org.cn/Detail.aspx?newsId=73248&TId=203. Ministry of Ecology and Environment of China. Initial national communication on climate change of the People's Republic of China[EB/OL].(2015-11-20)[2024-10-02] . https://tnc.ccchina.org.cn/Detail.aspx?newsId=73248&TId=203. [9] 中国生态环境部.中华人民共和国气候变化第二次国家信息通报[EB/OL].(2015-11-20)[2024-10-02] . https://tnc.ccchina.org.cn/Detail.aspx?newsId=73249&TId=203. Ministry of Ecology and Environment of China. Second national communication on climate change of the People's Republic of China[EB/OL].(2015-11-20)[2024-10-02] . https://tnc.ccchina.org.cn/Detail.aspx?newsId=73249&TId=203. [10] 中国生态环境部.中华人民共和国气候变化第二次两年更新报告[EB/OL].(2018-12-12)[2024-10-02] . https://tnc.ccchina.org.cn/Detail.aspx?newsId=73251&TId=203. Ministry of Ecology and Environment of China. Second biennial update report on climate change in the People's Republic of China[EB/OL].(2018-12-12)[2024-10-02] . https://tnc.ccchina.org.cn/Detail.aspx?newsId=73251&TId=203. [11] 中国生态环境部.中华人民共和国气候变化第四次国家信息通报[EB/OL].(2023-12-29)[2024-10-02] . https://www.mee.gov.cn/ywdt/hjywnews/202312/t20231229_1060290.shtml. Ministry of Ecology and Environment of China. Second biennial update report on climate change in the People's Republic of China[EB/OL].(2018-12-12)[2024-10-02] . https://tnc.ccchina.org.cn/Detail.aspx?newsId=73251&TId=203. [12] 黄季焜.对近期与中长期中国粮食安全的再认识[J].农业经济问题, 2021,(1):19-26. Huang J. Reconsideration of China's food security in the near and medium-to-long term[J]. Issues in Agricultural Economy, 2021,(1):19-26. [13] Cai S, Zhao X, Pittelkow C M, et al. Optimal nitrogen rate strategy for sustainable rice production in China[J]. Nature, 2023,615(7950):73-79. [14] Li S, Lu H, Li X, et al. Toward low-carbon rice production in China:Historical changes, driving factors, and mitigation potential[J]. Environmental Science& Technology, 2024,58(13):5772-5783. [15] Saunois M, Stavert A R, Poulter B, et al. The global methane budget 2000~2017[J]. Earth System Science Data, 2020,12(3):1561-1623. [16] Lin X, Zhang W, Crippa M, et al. A comparative study of anthropogenic CH4emissions over China based on the ensembles of bottom-up inventories[J]. Earth System Science Data, 2021,13(3):1073-1088. [17] Chen Z, Jacob D J, Nesser H, et al. Methane emissions from China:A high-resolution inversion of TROPOMI satellite observations[J]. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 2022,22(16):10809-10826. [18] Liang D, Lu X, Zhuang M, et al. China's greenhouse gas emissions for cropping systems from 1978~2016[J]. Scientific Data, 2021,8(1):171. [19] Peng S, Piao S, Bousquet P, et al. Inventory of anthropogenic methane emissions in mainland China from 1980 to 2010[J]. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 2016,16(22):14545-14562. [20] Shen N, Tan J, Wang W, et al. Long-term changes of methane emissions from rice cultivation during 2000~2060 in China:Trends, driving factors, predictions and policy implications[J]. Environment International, 2024,191:108958. [21] Sheng J, Song S, Zhang Y, et al. Bottom-up estimates of coal mine methane emissions in China:A gridded inventory, emission factors, and trends[J]. Environmental Science& Technology Letters, 2019, 6(8):473-478. [22] Sheng J, Tunnicliffe R, Ganesan A L, et al. Sustained methane emissions from China after 2012 despite declining coal production and rice-cultivated area[J]. Environmental Research Letters, 2021,16(10):104018. [23] Hristov A N, Harper M, Meinen R, et al. Discrepancies and uncertainties in bottom-up gridded inventories of livestock methane emissions for the contiguous United States[J]. Environmental Science& Technology, 2017,51(23):13668-13677. [24] Gong S, Shi Y. Evaluation of comprehensive monthly-gridded methane emissions from natural and anthropogenic sources in China[J]. Science of The Total Environment, 2021,784:147116. [25] Cheng K, Ogle S M, Parton W J, et al. Simulating greenhouse gas mitigation potentials for Chinese croplands using the DAYCENT ecosystem model[J]. Global Change Biology, 2014,20(3):948-962. [26] 李阳,陈敏鹏.中国省域农业源非CO2温室气体排放的影响因素分析与峰值预测[J].环境科学学报, 2021,41(12):5174-5189. Li Y, Chen M. Analysis of factors affecting non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions from agricultural sources in China[J]. Journal of Environmental Science, 2021,41(12):5174-5189. [27] 曾贤刚,余畅,孙雅琪.中国农业农村碳排放结构与碳达峰分析[J].中国环境科学, 2023,43(4):1906-1918. Zeng X, Yu C, Sun Y. Analysis of carbon emission structure and carbon peaks in China's agriculture and rural areas[J]. China Environmental Science, 2023,43(4):1906-1918. [28] Duan Y, Gao Y, Zhao J, et al. Agricultural methane emissions in China:Inventories, driving forces and mitigation strategies[J]. Environmental Science& Technology, 57(36):13292-13303. [29] Liu S, Liu K, Wang K, et al. Fossil-fuel and food systems equally dominate anthropogenic methane emissions in China[J]. Environmental Science& Technology, 2023,57(6):2495-2505. [30] Chen M, Cui Y, Jiang S, et al. Toward carbon neutrality before 2060:Trajectory and technical mitigation potential of non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions from Chinese agriculture[J]. Journal of Cleaner Production, 2022,368:133186. [31] Hoesly R M, Smith S J, Feng L, et al. Historical (1750-2014) anthropogenic emissions of reactive gases and aerosols from the Community Emissions Data System (CEDS)[J]. Geoscientific Model Development, 2018,11(1):369-408. [32] Li S, Zhuang Y, Liu H, et al. Enhancing rice production sustainability and resilience via reactivating small water bodies for irrigation and drainage[J]. Nature Communications, 2023,14(1):3794. [33] Cao J, Zhang Z, Tao F, et al. Integrating multi-source data for rice yield prediction across China using machine learning and deep learning approaches[J]. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 2021, 297:108275. [34] Xu P, Liao Y, Zheng Y, et al. Northward shift of historical methane emission hotspots from the livestock sector in China and assessment of potential mitigation options[J]. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 2019,272-273:1-11. [35] Liu Y, Gu W, Liu B, et al. Closing greenhouse gas emission gaps of staple crops in China[J]. Environmental Science& Technology, 2022, 56(13):9302-9311. [36] Song J, Liu Y, Zhuang M, et al. Estimating crop carbon footprint and associated uncertainty at prefecture-level city scale in China[J]. Resources, Conservation and Recycling, 2023,199:107263. [37] Sheng J, Tunnicliffe R, Ganesan A L, et al. Sustained methane emissions from China after 2012 despite declining coal production and rice-cultivated area[J]. Environmental Research Letters, 2021,16(10):104018. [38] Zhan P, Zhu W, Zhang T, et al. Regional inequalities of future climate change impact on rice (Oryza sativa L.) yield in China[J]. Science of The Total Environment, 2023,898:165495. [39] Yang T, Li F, Zhou X, et al. Impact of nitrogen fertilizer, greenhouse, and crop species on yield-scaled nitrous oxide emission from vegetable crops:A meta-analysis[J]. Ecological Indicators, 2019,105:717-726. [40] United Nation Department of Economic and Social Affiairs. World population prospects 2024[DS/OL].(2024)[2024-10-02] . https://population.un.org/wpp/. [41] United Nation Department of Economic and Social Affiairs. World urbanization prospect 2018[DS/OL].(2020)[2024-10-02] . https://population.un.org/wup/. [42] 国务院发展研究中心.从五方面应对内生性人口收缩[EB/OL].[2024-10-02] .https://www.drc.gov.cn/DocView.aspx?chnid=379&leafid=1338&docid=2906878. Development Research Center of the State Council of the People's Republic of China. Coping with endogenous population contraction from five aspects[EB/OL].[2024-10-02] . https://www.drc.gov.cn/DocView.aspx?chnid=379&leafid=1338&docid=2906878. [43] OECD. OECD economic outlook[DS/OL].(2024)[2024-10-02] . https://www.oecd.org/en/topics/sub-issues/economic-outlook.html. [44] World Bank. World Bank Open Data[DS/OL].(2024)[2024-10-02] . [45] International Monetary Fund (IMF). World economic outlook database[EB/OL].(2021)[2024-10-02] . https://data.worldbank.org. [46] Kilian L. New introduction to multiple time series analysis, by Helmut Lütkepohl, Springer, 2005[J]. Econometric Theory, 2006,22(5):961-967. [47] OECD, OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2021~2030[M]. Paris:OECD Publishing, 2021:33-52. [48] Uprety D C, Dhar S, Hongmin D, et al. Technologies for climate change mitigation:Agriculture sector[M]. Denmark:UNEP Risø Centre on Energy, 2012:38-40. [49] Wang W, Guo L, Li Y, et al. Greenhouse gas intensity of three main crops and implications for low-carbon agriculture in China[J]. Climatic Change, 2015,128(1):57-70. [50] Liu B, Guo C, Xu J, et al. Co-benefits for net carbon emissions and rice yields through improved management of organic nitrogen and water[J]. Nature Food, 2024,5(3):241-250. [51] Wang X, Li T, Yang X, et al. Rice yield potential, gaps and constraints during the past three decades in a climate-changing Northeast China[J]. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 2018,259:173-183. [52] Khatri-Chhetri A, Sapkota T B, Maharjan S, et al. Agricultural emissions reduction potential by improving technical efficiency in crop production[J]. Agricultural Systems, 2023,207:103620. [53] Chang J, Peng S, Yin Y, et al. The key role of production efficiency changes in livestock methane emission mitigation[J]. AGU Advances, 2021,2(2):e2021AV000391. [54] Datta A, Ullah H, Ferdous Z. Water management in rice:Rice production worldwide[M]. Berlin:Springer International Publishing, 2017:255-277. [55] Ahmed Z, Dong W, Qi Z, et al. Greenhouse gas emissions and mitigation strategies in rice production systems[M]. Berlin:Springer International Publishing, 2023:237-265. [56] Wang Y, Deng X, Wang R. Greenhouse gas emissions of rice supply chain in China:From production to trade[J]. Resources, Conservation and Recycling, 2024,202:107356. [57] Ma N, Liu X, Wang L, et al. A meta-analysis on the mitigation measures of methane emissions in Chinese rice paddy[J]. Resources, Conservation and Recycling, 2024,202:107379. [58] Harmsen M J H M, Van Vuuren D P, Nayak D R, et al. Data for long-term marginal abatement cost curves of non-CO2 greenhouse gases[J]. Data in Brief, 2019,25:104334. [59] Zhang W, Yu Y, Li T, et al. Net greenhouse gas balance in China's croplands over the last three decades and its mitigation potential[J]. Environmental Science& Technology, 2014,48(5):2589-2597. [60] Höglund-Isaksson L, Gómez-Sanabria A, Klimont Z, et al. Technical potentials and costs for reducing global anthropogenic methane emissions in the 2050 timeframe-results from the GAINS model[J]. Environmental Research Communications, 2020,2(2):025004. [61] Lin B J, Li R C, Liu K C, et al. Management-induced changes in soil organic carbon and related crop yield dynamics in China's cropland[J]. Global Change Biology, 2023,29(13):3575-3590. [62] Cai Z C, Tsuruta H, Minami K. Methane emission from rice fields in China:Measurements and influencing factors[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research:Atmospheres, 2000,105(D13):17231-17242. [63] 段彬伍,卢婉芳,陈苇,等.种植杂交稻对甲烷排放及土壤产甲烷菌的影响[J].农业环境保护, 1999,(5):203-208. Duan B, Lu W, Chen W, et al. Effects of growing hybrid rice on methane emission and soil methanogens[J]. Journal of Agro-Environment Science 1999,(5):203-208. [64] 邵可声,李震.水稻品种以及施肥措施对稻田甲烷排放的影响[J].北京大学学报(自然科学版), 1996,(4):100-108. Shao K, Li Z. Effects of rice varieties and fertilization measures on methane emissions from paddy fields[J]. Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Pekinensis, 1996,(4):100-108. [65] Wassmann R, Wang M X, Shangguan X J, et al. First records of a field experiment on fertilizer effects on methane emission from rice fields in Hunan-Province (PR China)[J]. Geophysical Research Letters, 1993,20(19):2071-2074. [66] 王明星,李晶,郑循华.稻田甲烷排放及产生､转化､输送机理[J].大气科学, 1998,(4):218-230. Wang M, Li J, Zheng Z. Methane emissions from paddy fields and its production, transformation and transportation[J]. Atmospheric Science, 1998,(4):218-230. [67] 张耀民,周毅,沈跃,等.中国农业排放源甲烷排放量的估算[J].生态环境, 1993,(S1):3-8,12-58. Zhang Y, Zhou Y, Shen Y, et al. Estimation of methane emissions from agricultural sources in China[J]. Journal of Ecology and Rural Environment, 1993,(S1):3-8,12-58. [68] 汤国安,杨昕,王春,等.ArcGIS地理信息系统空间分析实验教程(第二版)[M].北京:科学出版社, 2012:122-124. Tang G, Yang X, Wang C, et al. ArcGIS spatial analysis of geographic information systems (second edition)[M]. Beijing:Science Press, 2012:122-124. [69] Xuan X, Zhang F, Deng X, et al. Measurement and spatial-temporal transfer of greenhouse gas emissions from agricultural sources in China:A food trade perspective[J]. Resources, Conservation and Recycling, 2023,197:107100. [70] IPCC. AR6Synthesis Report:Climate Change 2023[EB/OL].(2023)[2024-10-02] . https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-cycle/. [71] Chen W, Wang G, Cai W, et al. Spatiotemporal mismatch of global grain production and farmland and its influencing factors[J]. Resources, Conservation and Recycling, 2023,194:107008. [72] Zhang W, Yu Y, Huang Y, et al. Modeling methane emissions from irrigated rice cultivation in China from 1960 to 2050[J]. Global Change Biology, 2011,17(12):3511-3523. [73] 黄季焜,王晓兵,智华勇,等.粮食直补和农资综合补贴对农业生产的影响[J].农业技术经济, 2011,(1):4-12. Huang J, Wang X, Zhi H, et al. Impact of direct food subsidies and comprehensive agricultural subsidies on agricultural production[J]. Journal of Agrotechnical Economics, 2011,(1):4-12. [74] 罗必良,耿鹏鹏.农业新质生产力:理论脉络､基本内核与提升路径[J].农业经济问题, 2024,(4):13-26. Luo B, Geng P. New quality productivity in agriculture:Theoretical lineage, basic kernel and promotion path[J]. Issues in Agricultural Economy, 2024,(4):13-26. [75] 魏后凯,崔凯.建设农业强国的中国道路:基本逻辑､进程研判与战略支撑[J].中国农村经济, 2022,(1):2-23. Wei H, Cui K. China's road to building a strong agricultural country:Basic logic, process judgment and strategic support[J]. China Rural Economy, 2022,(1):2-23. [76] 中华人民共和国统计局.中国统计年鉴[M].北京:中国统计出版社, 2021:385-414. Bureau of Statistics of the People's Republic of China. China statistical yearbook[M]. Beijing:China Statistics Press, 2021:285-414. [77] Zhong H, Liu Z, Wang J. Understanding impacts of cropland pattern dynamics on grain production in China:An integrated analysis by fusing statistical data and satellite-observed data[J]. Journal of Environmental Management, 2022,313:114988. [78] Xia L, Cao L, Yang Y, et al. Integrated biochar solutions can achieve carbon-neutral staple crop production[J]. Nature Food, 2023,4(3):236-246. [79] Zhu Y, Wang Z, Zhu X. New reflections on food security and land use strategies based on the evolution of Chinese dietary patterns[J]. Land Use Policy, 2023,126:106520. [80] FAOSTAT. FAO Emissions totals[EB/OL].(2022)[2024-10-02] . https://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/GT. [81] Sheng J, Tunnicliffe R, Ganesan A L, et al. Sustained methane emissions from China after 2012 despite declining coal production and rice-cultivated area[J]. Environmental Research Letters, 2021,16(10):104018. [82] Qian H, Zhu X, Huang S, et al. Greenhouse gas emissions and mitigation in rice agriculture[J]. Nature Reviews Earth& Environment, 2023,4(10):716-732. [83] Hu Y, Fan L, Liu Z, et al. Rice production and climate change in Northeast China:evidence of adaptation through land use shifts[J]. Environmental Research Letters, 2019,14(2):024014.
