基于混合效应模型的京津冀地区PM<sub>2.5</sub>日浓度估算

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Abstract

The predictive performance of mixed effects model with different combinations of parameters was evaluated using the data of 182-day MODIS 3km AOD and ground monitoring concentration of PM_2.5 in 2016 year. The explanation capacity was better for temporal variations when explaining the relationship between AOD and PM_2.5 than for the spatial variations. Daily AOD-PM_2.5 relationship in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region was established based on the mixed effects model. The model predictions R², cross-validations R², RMSE and MAE were 0.92,0.85,12.30 μg/m³, and 9.73 μg/m³, respectively, indicated that the model showed good performance. The annual average PM_2.5 concentration in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region was 42.98 μg/m³ in 2016 based on the proposed model. The values for April-October and November-March were 43.35 μg/m³ and 38.52 μg/m³. The differences were 0.59,0.7,5.29 μg/m³, respectively, comparing with the ground monitoring PM_2.5 data at the corresponding period. PM_2.5 concentrations were higher in the south area and lower in the north area in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region with higher concentrations from southwestern to northeastern direction. PM_2.5 concentrations in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region could be accurately evaluated based on the daily mixed effects model. The distribution of PM_2.5 concentrations estimated by the model could provide basic data support for the prevention and control of regional air pollution.

Key words： MODIS AOD PM_2.5 mixed effects model Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region

Received: 03 January 2018

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	Articles by authors
	JING Yue
	SUN Yan-ling
	XU Hao
	CHEN Li
	ZHANG Hui
	GAO Shuang
	FU Hong-chen
	MAO Jian

Cite this article:

JING Yue,SUN Yan-ling,XU Hao等. Daily estimation of PM_2.5 concentrations based on mixed effects model in Beijing-Tianjin-Heibei region[J]. CHINA ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCECE, 2018, 38(8): 2890-2897.

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http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/EN/ OR http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/EN/Y2018/V38/I8/2890

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