基于随机模拟的地下水污染物最优水力截获量

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Abstract

Hydraulic capture technique is one of the most widely applied technologies to purify or constrain contaminants from further contaminated groundwater. Thus, how to determine the optimal pumpage is the key issue.The optimal pumpage calculated by commonly used deterministic methods were usually unreasonable. Therefore, the Monte Carlo method based on the stochastic theory, in consideration of the stochastic property of hydrologic-geologic parameters, was applied to investigate the effect of the spatial variation of hydraulic conductivity on the fate of hydraulic capture zone and a new method to estimate the optimal pumpage was suggested. It had been proved that when the 110m³/d determined by means of deterministic methods was adopted as optimal pumpage, the contaminated area lay exactly within the capture zone of the well, Then, stochastic method was used to investigate the effect of spatial variation of hydraulic conductivity on hydraulic capture zone and the results indicated that the capture zone did not always cover the entire contaminated area when the optimal pumpage adopted the same value (110m³/d) according to traditional deterministic methods, facing a convergent mean risk criterion as high as 24%. This study showed that the optimal pumpage concluded from the Monte Carlo method was more reliable than commonly used deterministic method, because it could takes such spatial variation of hydraulic conductivity into account to study how the spatial variability effected the hydraulic capture zone, that provided a stochastic method to estimate the optimal pumpage from the perspective of acceptable convergent mean risk criterion.

Key words： stochastic modeling Monte Carlo simulation method spatial variation hydraulic capture

Received: 03 January 2018

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