斜剖面图的设计及在PM<sub>2.5</sub>中期潜势预报中的应用

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Abstract “Ingredients-based forecast methodology” in intensive precipitation potential forecast was adapted to environmental meteorological forecast. The ingredient-based oblique section for the next 10days was produced with RH at 700 hPa, wind direction and wind speed at 1000 hPa and temperature at 850 hPa from ECMWF numerical forecast products as ingredients. The oblique section was designed to be along the predominant cold air transport pathways which passed through the heavily polluted area in North China and Shanghai. 5recognition features were defined specifically for cold air transport type, dry stagnant type, wet stagnant type (3polluted types), cold air clean type and wet deposition clean type (2clean types). This oblique section combined the advantages of a single station’s time series diagrams and spatial graphs at a single time, thus significantly reduced the time of chart analysis. The oblique section also produced the relationship among meteorological pattern characteristics, pollution meteorological conditions and PM_2.5 pollution potentials. The evolution of synoptic patterns was easily recognized as typical polluted type or clean type, which led to the PM_2.5 mid-term potential forecast. Thus, this ingredient-based oblique section could be applied and promoted to operational environmental forecast. The model was applied to a typical pollution case. The characteristics of oblique section and actual pollution observation of this case were very similar. The stagnant pattern and cold air transport pattern were both identified. The 5-day forecast for the entire region and single stations were consistent with the observations. Further assessment showed that the TS score within 5 days of the forecast duration in the winter of 2018 was maintained in the range of 0.32~0.50, and the forecast accuracy for the next 10days was maintained in the range of 74.4%~86.7%.

Key words： mid-term potential forecast ECMWF ingredients based forecast methodology oblique section graphic features

Received: 16 January 2020

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X513

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	MAO Zhuo-cheng
	QU Yuan-hao
	XU Jian-ming
	YU Zhong-qi
	SHI Chun-hong
	YANG Dan-dan

Cite this article:

MAO Zhuo-cheng,QU Yuan-hao,XU Jian-ming等. Design of oblique section and its application to PM_2.5 mid-term potential forecast[J]. CHINA ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCECE, 2020, 40(8): 3312-3321.

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http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/EN/ OR http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/EN/Y2020/V40/I8/3312

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