西安BC、PM<sub>2.5</sub>与气温协同对心脑血管疾病死亡的影响

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Abstract Daily death data of cardiovascular diseases during 2014~2015, daily average of BC(black carbon) and PM_2.5 and meteorological data during the same period in Xi'an were collected. Three semi-parametric Generalized Additive Models (GAMs) based on the time series, including an independent model, a non-parametric bivariate response surface model, and a temperature stratification model, were adopted to this study. The results showed that BC and PM_2.5 had a lag effect on the daily mortality of cardiovascular diseases in Xi'an. With the optimal lag period, when concentrations of BC and PM_2.5 increased by interquartile range (IQR), the excess risk of cardiovascular diseases increased by 3.53%(95%CI:1.86, 5.23) and 2.01% (95%CI:1.06, 2.97), respectively. The exposure-response relationship between ambient temperature and mortality of cardiovascular diseases both exhibited "V" type and the most comfortable temperature was 26℃. Low temperature and high pollutant concentration had a synergistic strengthening effect on cardiovascular diseases. When the temperature lower 26℃, the modulating effects of temperature on BC-mortality relationship became more pronounced than that on PM_2.5-mortality relationships with temperature cutoff increasing. For cardiovascular diseases, different susceptibility showed in different subgroups, and female groups was more sensitive to the health risks of BC and PM_2.5. When BC and PM_2.5 were included in one or more other gaseous pollutants at the same time, the excess risk had no major impact. The adverse effect of BC on human health should not be neglected in the future. BC may be used as an important air quality indicator to assess the health risks of air pollutants.

Key words： black carbon PM_2.5 temperature synergistic effect cardiovascular diseases risk of excessive death

Received: 28 January 2021

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X503.1

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	OU Yi-han
	ZHANG Xiao-ling
	ZHANG Ying
	KANG ping

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OU Yi-han,ZHANG Xiao-ling,ZHANG Ying等. Influence of BC, PM_2.5, temperature and their synergy on mortality of cardiovascular diseases in Xi'an[J]. CHINA ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCECE, 2021, 41(9): 4415-4425.

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http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/EN/ OR http://www.zghjkx.com.cn/EN/Y2021/V41/I9/4415

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